988
FXUS62 KMFL 041718
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1218 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
AIRCRAFT (ACARS) AND SATELLITE DERIVED (GOES EAST) ATMOSPHERIC
VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE AN AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF STABLE DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON. 17Z RTMA
ANALYSIS CORROBORATES THIS, DEPICTING A SLIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE AXIS OF
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATER, A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET REST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS OUT OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, ALBEIT
LIGHT IN NATURE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN THE FIRST 1KM FROM THE
SURFACE, WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
LOW TOPPED CUMULUS ACROSS OUR LAND AREAS THROUGH SUNSET.
ONLY FORECAST ALTERATION THAT WAS MADE WAS THE INCLUSION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS INTERIOR LOCALES OF THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT, NOCTURNAL
STRATIFICATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERSION, AND GRADUAL
MOISTURE RETURN, PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST ACROSS LOCALES THROUGH DAYBREAK UNTIL VERTICAL MIXING ALLOWS
FOR THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND MIX OUT. FOG WILL BE A REOCCURRING
PHENOMENA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VARYING LEVELS OF SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL EXTENT EACH MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST FOCI OF
DENSE FOG WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL AID ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS MAINTAINED FOR THE THE END OF THIS WEEK AS
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STAYS SITUATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ANY MODEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SHALLOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANCE AND WEAK FLOW KEEPS
CONDITONS HIGHLY CALM. THEREFORE, QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BREAKS UP INTO AN OVERALL
ELONGATED TROUGH AND A DEEPER SHORTWAVE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. AS A RESULT, WITH THIS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE A
MORE ROBUST ONE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE, THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE
TO LIFT THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY AS WELL AS MONDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS FAR OUT DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
NOT BE AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS. THUS, MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
FRAME COULD END UP BEING OF THE GARDEN VARIETY WITH JUST A COUPLE OF
HEAVIER LOCALIZED POCKETS. IN GENERAL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ANY TOTAL
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR CONCERNS.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OVERALL QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND
WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO GET CHILLIER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME SW AS A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL LESSEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY LATER ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
ALSO NO THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS, LEADING TO OVERALL BENIGN
CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 1-2 FEET IN THE GULF AND 2-3 FEET
IN THE ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 66 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 69 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 70 83 69 85 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 83 69 84 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 69 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 69 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 66 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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