482
FXUS62 KMFL 051122
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
622 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION AND A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER JUST BELOW THIS INVERSION
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE INVERSION AND OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN,
THIS SETUP SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR
AND SW FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND POTENTIALLY MAY EXTEND TO THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE EAST COAST METRO. WHILE HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
ONLY AT 20% FOR FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE, THE
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THIS TO OVER-PERFORM.
AS FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, IT WILL BE MORE
RINSE AND REPEAT FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA EVEN AS IT GETS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL US STARTS TO ADVECT EASTWARD.
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS
WELL. THEREFORE, EXPECT ONGOING QUIET WEATHER FOR TODAY AND THROUGH
TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
ELONGATED TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BE PUSHED AWAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WELL.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
IT SWINGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS PWATS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.5". AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARDS, IT WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY FORCING
FOR ASCENT THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. CURRENT
GENERAL QPF ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST FOR LESS THAN 1 INCH,
WITH 90TH PERCENTILE (POTENTIAL HIGH-END) TOTAL PRECIP OF 1-2".
DUE TO THE RECENT LONG DRY STRETCH, THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD NOT
POSE IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND IN FACT WOULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. THE ONLY RISK WILL BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION RECEIVING
HIGH- END RAINFALL IN A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. HOWEVER, BRISK
FLOW ALOFT (20-30 KTS) SHOULD PREVENT THE RISK OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS RECEIVING HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE RAINFALL FORECAST AS THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
FRONT HAS POTENTIAL TO STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND IN PARTS OF SE
FLORIDA AND GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH AROUND WED-THU NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE SOME MOISTURE LINGERS. THUS, EXPECT QUIETER
WEATHER TO RETURN POST-FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID
80S AND EVEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS WILL
FALL ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP AS WELL STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S WEST OF LAKE O AND THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 15Z AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AFTER 18Z AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS NO THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, LEADING
TO ONGOING BENIGN CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE PALM BEACHES TODAY
WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE OTHER BEACHES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS WEEKEND AND RESULT IN A
LOW RISK FOR ALL BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 70 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 65 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 68 86 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 68 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 69 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 83 69 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 68 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 68 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 84 68 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 68 83 69 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page