978
FXUS62 KMFL 051803
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
103 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A WEAK MID/UPPR LVL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA,
KEEPING A GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE S FLOW IN PLACE TODAY.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES A MINIMUM, WITH POPS/WX GRIDS IN SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, LATEST ENSEMBLES AND NBM SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAK MESO-LOW
OVER CAROLINAS GRADUALLY LIFTING NE TODAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THE LOW DEPARTS, THE
DECAYING BOUNDARY SEEMS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE
EXPECTED OVER SOFLO. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE
SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
MODELS STILL HINT AT HAVING ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO WORK WITH AND BRING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS OF PATCHY TO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES RESIDE OVER INTERIOR AREAS, BUT LOCATIONS
KNOWN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS LIKE WEST
MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL/WESTERN BROWARD MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
ELONGATED TROUGHING WILL SET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BE PUSHED AWAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WELL.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
IT SWINGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS PWATS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.5". AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARDS, IT WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY FORCING
FOR ASCENT THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. CURRENT
GENERAL QPF ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST FOR LESS THAN 1 INCH,
WITH 90TH PERCENTILE (POTENTIAL HIGH-END) TOTAL PRECIP OF 1-2".
DUE TO THE RECENT LONG DRY STRETCH, THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD NOT
POSE IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND IN FACT WOULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. THE ONLY RISK WILL BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION RECEIVING
HIGH- END RAINFALL IN A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. HOWEVER, BRISK
FLOW ALOFT (20-30 KTS) SHOULD PREVENT THE RISK OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS RECEIVING HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE RAINFALL FORECAST AS THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
FRONT HAS POTENTIAL TO STALL OUT AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND IN PARTS OF SE
FLORIDA AND GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY
MOVING THROUGH AROUND WED-THU NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SE FLORIDA SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE WHERE SOME MOISTURE LINGERS. THUS, EXPECT QUIETER
WEATHER TO RETURN POST-FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID
80S AND EVEN UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPS WILL
FALL ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP AS WELL STARTING MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S WEST OF LAKE O AND THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SSE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS, THEN BECOMING L/V
AFTER 00-01Z. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AFTER 18-19Z AS A GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS NO THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, LEADING
TO ONGOING BENIGN CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-2 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE PALM BEACHES TODAY
WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE OTHER BEACHES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TO FALL OFF THIS WEEKEND AND RESULT IN A
LOW RISK FOR ALL BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 84 71 85 / 10 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 65 86 67 86 / 10 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 68 86 69 86 / 10 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 69 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 84 70 84 / 10 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 68 86 69 86 / 10 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 67 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 68 86 69 86 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 69 82 68 83 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...17
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