371
FXUS62 KMFL 060555
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AHEAD A FRONTAL
APPROACH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, EXTENDING FROM THE
HUDSON BAY ALL THE WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE INTERIM,
SPAWNING STOUT SURFACE LOWS AND A FEW COLD FRONTS THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NATION. THE FIRST TWO SUCH LOW PRESSURE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED, ONE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, AND ONE
JUST WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT TAILING THE CAROLINA LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED AND SEMI-STATIONARY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON (A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE CLIMO NORMALS), AND PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE
(ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE). NEVERTHELESS,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY, WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING SPRINKLES BEING HINTED AT BY THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND
PROBS AT OR BELOW 10%.
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN EARLY THIS
MORNING. ACARS SOUNDING DATA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOW ENOUGH
REMNANT MOISTURE BELOW 800MB; THIS, COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATION FOG TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SREF AND HREF
GUIDANCE BOTH HAVE ABOUT 50 TO 60% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING
BELOW 1 MILE BETWEEN 2-8AM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
FINALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AND CAP OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 40-50%
RANGE. INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE ON EITHER DAY
(SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AT BEST), BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THAT PERHAPS A
FEW ROGUE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER,
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
PREVAIL INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH PWATS BACK TO THE 0.8-1 INCH
RANGE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY.
A FEW ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER CONUS IN THE
INTERIM AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO WATCH COMING ON THE TAILS OF A SURFACE LOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A
FRONTAL APPROACH WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK,
AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF DAYS 6-7
SHOW GENERALIZED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF, GEFS AND GEPS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL GENERALLY FAVORING A
SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH (WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKER FRONT AND
SLOWER APPROACH TO OUR AREA), WHILE THE GEFS/GEPS SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE IN FASTER/DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OVERALL. CONCLUSION? IT'S TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO ANYTHING, BUT
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL OUTCOME AND IMPACTS TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAPF
COULD EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS FROG AND LOW CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 1-3 FEET ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WINDS COULD INCREASE AND VEER FROM THE NORTH
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 86 66 86 69 / 0 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 86 69 86 71 / 0 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 84 69 85 70 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 69 84 70 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 70 84 70 / 0 0 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 87 69 87 70 / 0 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 85 68 85 70 / 0 0 20 30
BOCA RATON 85 68 86 70 / 0 0 10 20
NAPLES 82 68 83 71 / 0 0 10 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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