185
FXUS62 KMFL 070545
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, AND LOW CLOUD DECKS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN FL.
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WHEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN START TO INCREASE AHEAD A FRONTAL APPROACH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. ACARS
SOUNDING DATA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOW ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB; THIS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, COULD ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE BOTH HAVE ABOUT 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE BETWEEN 2-10AM. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE
FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING, AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY
AND CLEAR THE PENINSULA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ( A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMO NORMALS), AND PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH
RANGE (ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE). CHANCES FOR RAIN
START TO INCREASE TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THE
BULK OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOST
LIKELY COME BETWEEN EARLY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT THERE IS A 1 IN 10 CHANCES THAT SOME SPOTS IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE COULD GET 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP ON MONDAY WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
COOLER, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIP TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MID 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO WATCH COULD MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR DAYS 5-
6 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) SHOW GENERALIZED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF,
GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL GENERALLY
FAVORING A SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH (WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
WEAKER FRONT AND SLOWER/LATER APPROACH TO OUR AREA), WHILE THE
GEFS/GEPS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH
FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVERALL. FOR NOW, WE'RE KEEPING THE NBM
FORECAST FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOW-END POPS (15-30%) STARTING
FRIDAY, BUT BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAPF
COULD EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 1-3 FEET ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE
AND VEER FROM THE NORTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 72 85 67 / 10 10 30 10
WEST KENDALL 86 69 85 65 / 0 10 30 10
OPA-LOCKA 86 71 85 67 / 10 20 30 10
HOMESTEAD 85 72 85 67 / 0 10 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 67 / 10 20 40 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 72 84 67 / 10 20 40 10
PEMBROKE PINES 86 71 85 67 / 10 20 40 10
WEST PALM BEACH 86 70 82 66 / 20 30 40 10
BOCA RATON 86 70 85 67 / 10 20 40 20
NAPLES 83 71 81 62 / 20 40 50 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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