843
FXUS62 KMFL 072316
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
616 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 550 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WHEN
CHANCES FOR RAIN START TO INCREASE AHEAD A FRONTAL APPROACH.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING FORECAST SCENARIO IS THE PUSH OF A
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, WHICH ALSO PUSHES THE
LINGERING DECAYING BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOFLO BY
MONDAY MORNING. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND NBM SOLUTIONS SHOW THE MAIN
FRONT FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS SOFLO FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT SHOULD THEN REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS BY MON
EARLY EVENING, BUT THIS TIMING MIGHT BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE
MIGRATION OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH.
FOR TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/LOW ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THE
MID/UPPR LVL RIDGING ALOFT, AND ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO BEGIN
INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PREVAILING S/SW FLOW
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TODAY.
LATEST MODEL PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES, WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAIN ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY HAPPENING BETWEEN EARLY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
BUT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS DON'T LOOK TOO SUPPORTIVE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION, AS DEPICTED BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIKE CAM. BUT
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULE OUT,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT THERE IS A 1 IN 10 CHANCES THAT SOME SPOTS IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE COULD GET 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
COOLER, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIP TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MID 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO WATCH COULD MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR DAYS 5-
6 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) SHOW GENERALIZED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF,
GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL GENERALLY
FAVORING A SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH (WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
WEAKER FRONT AND SLOWER/LATER APPROACH TO OUR AREA), WHILE THE
GEFS/GEPS SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH
FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVERALL. FOR NOW, WE'RE KEEPING THE NBM
FORECAST FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOW-END POPS (15-30%) STARTING
FRIDAY, BUT BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE AREA. TAFS
MIGHT REQUIRE TEMPOS AROUND THE 15-22Z PERIOD, FOR WHICH PROB30S
ARE NOW IN PLACE. AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA, LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME L/V OVERNIGHT, THEN SW/W AFTER
15Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND FINALLY SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 1-3 FEET ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE
AND VEER FROM THE NORTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 85 67 76 / 10 60 20 20
WEST KENDALL 70 85 64 78 / 10 60 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 72 85 65 78 / 20 60 20 20
HOMESTEAD 72 85 66 78 / 10 50 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 72 85 65 78 / 20 70 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 65 76 / 30 70 10 10
BOCA RATON 71 84 66 77 / 20 70 20 10
NAPLES 72 81 61 77 / 50 50 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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