515
FXUS62 KMFL 081121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY AS TWO FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN AFTER NOON.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS WINDS SURGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- DRIER, COOLER WEATHER STARTING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR FLORIDA, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND
ABOUT 0.5-1 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME SPOTS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS
IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT
AREAS ACROSS THE EAST COAST COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORMS OR SO FROM NOW UNTIL AROUND 11-13Z, WHEN THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE AREA.
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW ALONG LATER TODAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 15-18Z. THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA, BUT
AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTS, COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE A FEW DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE FL STRAITS AFTER
00Z TONIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN
COOLER, DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND DOWN TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE
COASTS. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE PENINSULA,
PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRY, RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR, AND MID 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO WATCH COULD MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR DAYS 4-
5 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING A WEAKER,
SLOWER APPROACH FROM THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD LIKELY MEAN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES, AND THE NBM CAUGHT ONTO
THAT TREND THIS MORNING, WITH POPS BELOW 15% BETWEEN FRI-SUN.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM, AND WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO LINGER JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA, DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP UP TO
THE 15-25% RANGE MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST
COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS TWO FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. VCSH/VCTS AFTER 15Z, LASTING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS BEING TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS TWO FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KTS BY TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT, UP
TO 7 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AND BETWEEN 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 66 75 68 / 50 30 20 20
WEST KENDALL 85 64 77 63 / 40 20 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 86 66 77 66 / 50 30 20 10
HOMESTEAD 85 66 77 67 / 40 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 66 75 67 / 60 30 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 66 75 67 / 60 20 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 87 66 77 66 / 60 30 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 83 66 75 65 / 70 20 10 10
BOCA RATON 85 66 76 66 / 60 20 10 10
NAPLES 81 61 76 60 / 50 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...REDMAN
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