619
FXUS62 KMFL 081801
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
101 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 102 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WINDS SURGE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- DRIER, COOLER WEATHER STARTING TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
AFTER A PAUSE FROM SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FIRST FRONTAL
PASSAGE, A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN ON GUIDANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CAMS AND HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FROPA, IN THE 16-22Z TIME FRAME,
FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOFLO. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT ANY PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
AND ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, OVERALL SUPPORT
FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER-END AS THE AIR MASS
GRADUALLY STABILIZES BEHIND THE FROPA. BEST CHANCES FOR AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM WILL RESIDE OVER THE LAKE REGION AND THE ATLANTIC METRO
AREAS.
MODELS PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FL STRAITS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE ONSET OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE THE UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THE REST
OF SOFLO WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 60S, WARMER ALONG THE
COASTS. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE PENINSULA,
PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRY, RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR, AND MID 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO WATCH COULD MAKE ITS APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AT PLAY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR DAYS 4-
5 (THURSDAY-FRIDAY) ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING A WEAKER,
SLOWER APPROACH FROM THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD LIKELY MEAN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES, AND THE NBM CAUGHT ONTO
THAT TREND THIS MORNING, WITH POPS BELOW 15% BETWEEN FRI-SUN.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SYSTEM, AND WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO LINGER JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA, DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP UP TO
THE 15-25% RANGE MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST
COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE. W WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH BY
THIS EVENING. VCSH/VCTS REMAIN IN THE TAFS WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS BEING TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS TWO FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KTS BY TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT, UP
TO 7 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AND BETWEEN 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 75 68 80 / 40 40 20 20
WEST KENDALL 65 77 64 81 / 40 40 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 77 66 81 / 40 30 20 20
HOMESTEAD 67 77 67 81 / 40 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 74 67 79 / 40 30 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 74 67 79 / 40 20 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 66 77 66 82 / 40 30 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 66 74 66 79 / 20 10 10 10
BOCA RATON 66 77 67 80 / 30 20 10 20
NAPLES 61 76 62 78 / 10 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
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