069
FXUS62 KMFL 090819
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 318 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
A STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN A NOTICEABLE
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT TODAY, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST FL WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE, AND FOCUSED OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST
COAST METRO. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-TOPPED AND WEAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND DOWN TO THE MID 60S ALONG
THE COASTS. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, FINALLY PUSHING THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE FL STRAITS SOUTH, AND DRIVING ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS DRY FRONT CORRESPONDS TO A FASTER AND WEAKER
SOLUTION THAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO LOCK ONTO FOR THE
LATE-WEEK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
OVER THE INTERIOR, AND MID 60S ALONG THE COASTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT A DEVELOPING
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF THAT COULD SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER THE PENINSULA, POTENTIALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE
COLUMN AND LEADING TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY, WENT WITH THE
PREVAILING NBM GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS IN
THE 20-30% RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE LATER TODAY, AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TODAY, REACHING THE 7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, AND 3-5 FT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS RELAX. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LIKELY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES TODAY AS BREEZY WINDS AND SWELL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 68 80 59 / 50 30 10 0
WEST KENDALL 77 64 82 55 / 50 30 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 77 66 82 58 / 50 30 10 0
HOMESTEAD 77 68 81 59 / 50 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 68 79 58 / 40 30 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 74 68 79 58 / 40 30 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 77 66 82 57 / 40 30 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 74 66 79 56 / 30 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 76 67 81 57 / 40 30 10 10
NAPLES 75 61 77 59 / 20 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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