910
FXUS62 KMFL 200515
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE EAST COAST.
- EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AS TODAY PROGRESSES AND THEN IT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
BEFORE EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH VERY
LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH LITTLE FANFARE, HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO PUSH IN AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO MORE OF A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL
BE ON THE WARM SIDE AS THEY WILL RISE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE GULF
COAST, WHERE LOWER 80S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE
CORE OF THE DRIER AIR REMAIN LOCKED UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION QUICKLY
REBOUNDS AS WINDS VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT
VALUES RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY RANGING BETWEEN
1.0 AND 1.2 INCHES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, HOWEVER, THEY
COULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING
TO ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
SHUNT MOST OF THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS OR IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. SOME MID 80S MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE A BIT AS A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
ON MONDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST HEADING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH
WILL BRING A BREEZY AND GUSTY EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION MAINLY LATER ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WITH
AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ALOFT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED,
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT, SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO POTENTIAL
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND WILL
EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER NEARBY, ALLOWING FOR
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER ONSHORE (W/WNWRLY AT
KAPF, ENE/E BREEZE AT ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS) ALONG BOTH COASTS
BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT BUT NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME WEST NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AND GENERALLY REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING AND RANGING BETWEEN
2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 131 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MODERATE RISK WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 70 81 69 / 0 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 65 83 66 / 0 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 68 83 68 / 0 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 70 82 69 / 0 0 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 70 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 83 68 83 68 / 0 10 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 81 70 81 69 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 81 64 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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