110
FXUS62 KMFL 201918
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA; MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
A DECAYING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
AT THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A LONGWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA BUT SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE MOISTURE COULD
PERMIT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE OR
THE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE MOISTURE COULD ALSO
ENABLE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE IT BECOMES
DENSE. THE LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH SHIFTING WEST BEGINS TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GRADUAL SHIFT OF STOUT SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
WITH US IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ALOFT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED. FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS AVERAGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE COLUMN.
THUS, THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 1KM
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO POTENTIAL COASTAL CONVERGENCE
SETTING UP AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR A WETTER SOLUTION, HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE SETUP AS ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE
WITH US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALBEIT LESSENING IN INTENSITY
FURTHER ALONG IN THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST,
CHRISTMAS EVE AS WELL AS CHRISTMAS DAY HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH AN EASTERLY BREEZE.
CURRENT WAKE-UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA, UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST METRO AREA AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE
ATLANTIC TERMINALS AND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CIGS AROUND
APF AND THE INLAND TERMINALS COULD BRING BOUTS OF SUB-VFR.
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING ON SATURDAY OUT OF
THE EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST DETAILS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RISK WILL THEN EXPAND AND ENHANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS ENHANCE. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS MAY ALSO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE PALM BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 82 70 79 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 66 83 65 80 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 69 83 68 80 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 69 82 69 80 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 80 70 78 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 81 70 79 / 20 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 69 82 68 80 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 69 79 / 20 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 69 82 70 80 / 20 10 0 10
NAPLES 64 83 65 82 / 0 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...RAG
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