699
FXUS62 KMFL 211110
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
610 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT TIMES TODAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
- SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST
BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
06Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ADVECTING IN PERIODICALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHES/AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS, A
DEVELOPING NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION, AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
MOISTURE WITH CLEAR SKIES PROVIDES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. RECENT ACARS DATA FROM NEARBY KRSW DEPICTS NOT ONLY A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD) BUT ALSO
A DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. FORECASTING
FOG CAN PROVE TO BE A CHALLENGE WHEN ATTEMPTING TO GET THE SPATIAL
EXTENT AS WELL AS SEVERITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. HREF AND SREF
GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL MAINTAIN A GOOD SIGNAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRAFFIC CAMERA AND
OBSERVATIONS FOR THE NEED OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUANCES OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE RESIDUAL ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE FROM A DECAYED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.0 TO 1.3 INCH
RANGE, PRIMARILY IN THE LOWEST 1KM OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A MESO LOW OVER LAND AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND A MESO HIGH OVER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS ONSHORE, NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA STRAITS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE NEXT LOBE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ADVECTS
WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS WE REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS THE UPWIND PROROGATION VECTOR (SW) IS DIRECTLY
INVERSE TO COASTAL SURFACE WINDS (NE). WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOW-CAPPED, HIGHER SPATIAL COVERAGE COULD BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES A TAD HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SUBTLE CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. THE NBM
75TH PERCENTILE EVEN HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF UPPER
80S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
CERTAINLY BE IN THE CARDS GIVEN LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT PRESSURE
HEIGHTS (1030+ MB) OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE
NEARING THE 96-98TH PERCENTILE BASED ON HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS. WHY
IS THIS FACTOID IMPORTANT FOR US HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA? THE
ANOMALOUS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING COMBINED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BEACH AND
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR OUR ATLANTIC BEACHES AND WATERS, FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST, CHECK OUR THE PERTINENT
SECTIONS BELOW. GREATER VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TO LOW 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
WITH THE GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY LESSENING IN
INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THANKS TO THE VERTICAL MIXING PROVIDED BY
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THE AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION, KEEPING ANY MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE. ONCE SITUATED
OVER THE REGION, FORECAST MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, KEEPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND RAIN CHANCES LIMITED IN
NATURE. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE WITH US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALBEIT LESSENING IN
INTENSITY FURTHER ALONG IN THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE
80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BUDGED
MUCH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, CHRISTMAS EVE AS WELL AS CHRISTMAS DAY
HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH
AN EASTERLY BREEZE. CURRENT WAKE-UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST METRO
AREA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
LIFR CEILINGS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SW FL INCLUDING APF,
ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
IMPACT TMB AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE EXPECTED AT APF. VCSH IN AT EAST COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO AN NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
2-3 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS (1-2 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS) TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, A PERIOD
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS BEGINNING ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 4AM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST 7AM ON TUESDAY AS WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL BUILD TO 7+ FEET DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ALSO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY LATER ON MONDAY MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. ALTERATIONS ON ADVISORY TIMING
AND DURATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK WILL THEN EXPAND AND ENHANCE TO HIGH AT ALL
EAST COAST BEACHES BEGINNING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE
WINDS ENHANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 79 71 / 20 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 66 80 67 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 69 80 69 / 20 20 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 70 80 71 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 70 78 70 / 20 20 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 70 78 70 / 20 20 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 68 80 69 / 20 20 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 78 70 / 30 20 0 10
BOCA RATON 82 70 80 70 / 30 20 0 10
NAPLES 83 65 83 65 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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