340
FXUS62 KMFL 230515
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
- EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION AND THEY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ELEVATED
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO SET THE
STAGE FOR ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS TO SET UP MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED, THE ELEVATED WIND FLOW
WILL CREATE SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD HELP TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO
THE EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS THAT MAY MATERIALIZE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE ALIGNMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BLUSTERY PERIOD ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH FAR REACHING AND SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
CANADA ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF MSLP (PRESSURE HEIGHTS) CORROBORATE EARLIER CLUSTER
ANALYSIS THAT INDICATED THAT PRESSURE HEIGHTS (1030-1034 MB) OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY WILL EXCEED THE 96-98TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A COMMON POINT OF DISCUSSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THE
STRENGTH OF THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMPORTANT
TO US DOWN HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ANOMALOUS STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING COMBINED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE CARRIBEAN SEA WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, PEAKING IN INTENSITY LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE
BAY WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE, SURFACE FRICTION WILL
REDUCE WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THAT
BEING SAID, THE HREF 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
NEARING 30 MPH. WHILE THIS REMAINS BELOW OUR LOCAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, IT MAY NOT HURT TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
DECORATIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND, ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BRISKLY MOVING
ALONG IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS
TYPE OF WEATHER REGIME WITH BRISK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE INSTABILITY-
LADDER WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM OFTEN SUPPORTS LOW-END CHANCES FOR
QUICK MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND RECENT
06Z ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AREA AIRPORT DEPICT A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1KM TO PRODUCE LOW-TOPPED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO TODAY. BASED
ON THE CAMS (CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS) AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS, BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO THE 10-20% RANGE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. GREATER VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO
HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TO LOW 80S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
WITH THE GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY LESSENING IN
INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THANKS TO THE VERTICAL MIXING PROVIDED BY
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THE AXIS
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION, KEEPING ANY MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF
LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, ELONGATING AND WANING IN
INTENSITY WHILE BEING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ROTATING INTO THE REGION AT TIMES.
SYNOPTICALLY, THINGS WILL REMAIN QUICK ALOFT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS
DISTANT TROUGHS AND THE JET STREAM REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS,
CHRISTMAS EVE AS WELL AS CHRISTMAS DAY HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH AN EASTERLY BREEZE.
CURRENT WAKE-UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREA TO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE GULF COAST METRO AREA AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
GUSTY ENE WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LESSENING IN INTENSITY LATE IN THE DAY.
QUICK MOVING ISOLATED SHRA REMAINS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL LESSEN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, REMAINING OUT
OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS.
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS WAVE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULFSTREAM WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH 7PM ON TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
BUILD TO 7 TO 10+ FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY LATER THIS
MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY
WATERS UNTIL 7AM ON TUESDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF CONDITONS MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE
HAZARDOUS TO INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD
AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 68 79 66 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 81 63 80 61 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 67 80 65 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 67 80 65 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 68 78 67 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 67 78 67 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 80 66 80 65 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 78 67 79 66 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 79 67 80 66 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 62 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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