272
FXUS62 KMFL 232355
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 651 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A GUSTY EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE. WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LEVELS,
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALL OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND LOW TOPPED AS THE 18Z KMFL
SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WORKS OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND PWATS BEGIN TO FALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AREA
WIDE TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
AIRCRAFT (ACARS) DATA FROM LOCAL SOFLO AIRPORTS AS WELL AS OBSERVED
GOES-EAST SATELLITE SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERISTIC OF
STOUT RIDGING AT MULTIPLE LAYERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM
850MB UP THE VERTICAL COLUMN. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID-
LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE HALLMARKS OF SURFACE RIDGING IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IN BOTH ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING PROFILES (UPPER-AIR,
AIRCRAFT, SATELLITE) AND 06Z MESOANALYSIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF MSLP (PRESSURE HEIGHTS) ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 1030+ MB AS THE
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY ADVECTS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THESE MSLP VALUES
CONTINUE TO EXCEED THE 94-96TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO HISTORICAL
OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
HIGH AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, CURRENTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THE DECOUPLING AND STRATIFICATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REDUCED WINDS INLAND OVERNIGHT, THE ONSET OF
VERTICAL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
A BREEZY TO GUSTY DAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND, ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BRISKLY
MOVING ALONG IN THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS DRY AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE MAY
STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1KM TO
PRODUCE LOW-TOPPED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO TODAY. BASED ON THE CAMS (CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS)
AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO THE 10-20%
RANGE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. GREATER VERTICAL
MIXING DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TO LOW 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, ELONGATING AND WANING IN INTENSITY WHILE BEING CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
REMAIN MAINLY DRY, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
STILL ROTATING INTO THE REGION AT TIMES. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPS IN THE
80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
THE TANDEM OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WANING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN WITH US ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT (COURTESY OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW) BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GIVE THE REGION A COOL
START TO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH FORECAST WAKE-UP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE AXIS
OF BOTH SURFACE AND MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S AREA-
WIDE.
THE STATUS QUO, RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN OF DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE (SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL) WILL ADVECT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG BOTH COASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK DOWN IN
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME, BUT RECENT AI-GFS, AI-GEFS, AND
EUROPEAN MODEL SUITES INDICATE THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES (POTENTIALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR SEASONAL NORMS) COULD MATERIALIZE BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A LOT CAN CHANGE FORECAST-WISE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
GENERALLY VFR WITH A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL PICK UP
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
ELEVATED EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS WAVES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULFSTREAM WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 7PM TODAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF
STREAM WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM PEAK WAVE HEIGHT VALUES OF 7-10+
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE FOR
BISCAYNE BAY AT 7AM THIS MORNING AS WINDS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN BISCAYNE BAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE THREAT
OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF CONDITONS MAY ALSO PROVE TO BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH BEACHES THROUGH 11AM THIS MORNING. ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD AND WHEN IN DOUBT, DON'T VENTURE OUT!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 79 66 80 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 62 80 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 65 80 65 81 / 10 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 67 80 65 80 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 78 66 79 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 78 66 79 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 65 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 66 79 65 79 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 67 80 66 80 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 62 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...RAG
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