122
FXUS62 KMFL 250805
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING, WITH LOW-END (10-20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PROMOTING LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, WHICH WILL
HELP SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EAST COAST (AS EVIDENCED VIA ACARS SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY)
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY. THE NBM CAME IN A
BIT LOW ON POPS TODAY, SO WE BUMPED THEM UP TO THE 15-20% TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE LOW-END CHANCES.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RADIATION FOG
COULD FORM IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE, BUT VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS COULD
DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S, WHILE LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AND INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS (WHICH ARE IN THE 76-
78F RANGE) BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES (IN THE UPPER
80S).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STOUT TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AS DRY
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
A PATTERN CHANGE APPROACHES NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ALONG THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION, RESULTING
IN MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE YEAR AND START 2026.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTLINES NEAR NOON.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL DRIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM 06-16Z,
BUT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL INLAND OF TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 80 64 80 64 / 20 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 81 59 81 58 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 63 81 62 / 20 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 80 62 81 61 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 63 79 63 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 63 80 63 / 20 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 62 81 61 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 62 80 61 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 63 81 62 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 81 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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