692
FXUS62 KMFL 251708
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1208 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
- MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO INLAND SOUTH FL FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ALSO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. OTHERWISE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEAUTIFUL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. ENJOY AND MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, PROMOTING LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, WHICH WILL
HELP SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ALONG THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EAST COAST (AS EVIDENCED VIA ACARS SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY)
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY. THE NBM CAME IN A
BIT LOW ON POPS TODAY, SO WE BUMPED THEM UP TO THE 15-20% TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE LOW-END CHANCES.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RADIATION FOG
COULD FORM IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE, BUT VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS COULD
DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S, WHILE LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AND INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS (WHICH ARE IN THE 76-
78F RANGE) BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES (IN THE UPPER
80S).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STOUT TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AS DRY
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH DAY,
AND LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
A PATTERN CHANGE APPROACHES NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ALONG THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION, RESULTING
IN MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE YEAR AND START 2026.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 59 81 58 82 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 81 62 82 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 62 81 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 79 63 79 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 63 80 63 80 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 62 81 61 81 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 62 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 63 81 62 81 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 60 80 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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