458
FXUS62 KMFL 260657
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTH
FL.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, USHERING DRIER, COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE AXIS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE FL
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BOTH FEATURES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO
PERSIST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, MOST GUIDANCE
FORECASTS ABNORMALLY LOW MOISTURE VALUES ALONG THE COLUMN, WITH
PWATS OF 0.7-1.0 INCH, BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILES BASED
ON THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH RES
MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS EACH AFTERNOON, SO WE BUMPED UP THE POPS A TOUCH
FROM THE BASELINE NBM TO REFLECT THAT POSSIBILITY.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SREF
AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE,
BUT VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES,
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S, WHILE LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AND INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS (WHICH ARE IN THE 76-
78F RANGE) BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES (IN THE UPPER
80S).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE APPROACHES AS ENTER THE NEW WEEK AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US ON SUNDAY, CAUSING WINDS LOCALLY TO
GRADUALLY START VEERING FROM THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
ADVECTING MOISTURE-RICH AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS,
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT, SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE
FL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN MODELS ENSEMBLES FROM THE THREE MAJOR SUITES (GEFS, ECMWF,
GEPS), AND MAINLY SHOW VERY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY AND
SPEED FOR THE PARENT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF MEMBERS
GENERALLY FAVOR A STRONGER SYSTEM, THE GFS WEAKENS IT SOMEWHAT,
AND BOTH SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS;
WHEREIN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MONDAY-
TUESDAY, NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEK, CLOSER
TO TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO THE WARMER SOLUTIONS, BUT THE OVERALL NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT THAT POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME
REMAINS ON THE LOWER END. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THE BULK OF THE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLOWER, STRONG SYSTEM, AND THUS A SLOWER, COOLER
FRONTAL APPROACH. THE NBM DEPICTS THAT CONSENSUS FAIRLY WELL,
WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT (MEAGER
THOUGH IT MAY BE), OCCURRING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE COOL
SNAP TRULY HITTING MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AS BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECT COOL, DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S THROUGH TUESDAY, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY A FEW DEGREES AS WE WELCOME TO 2026.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTLINES NEAR NOON.
PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL INLAND OF TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 3 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 81 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 81 62 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 61 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 62 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 62 80 63 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 61 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 80 59 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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