401
FXUS62 KMFL 271741
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
ACROSS SW FL.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
USHERING DRIER, COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE AXIS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES, AND THE FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BOTH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, MOST GUIDANCE FORECASTS ABNORMALLY LOW
MOISTURE VALUES ALONG THE COLUMN, WITH PWATS OF 0.7-1.0 INCH,
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILES BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS SUCH, EXPECT DRY AND SUNNY DAYS WITH NEAR-ZERO
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
COULD BECOME DENSE IN NATURE, WITH VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS
DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S, WHILE LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AND INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS (WHICH ARE IN THE 76-
78F RANGE) BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES (IN THE UPPER
80S).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE APPROACHES AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRONT DROPPING ALONG THE FL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME, SOME DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN MODELS ENSEMBLES
FROM THE THREE MAJOR SUITES (GEFS, ECMWF, GEPS), AND MAINLY SHOW
SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY AND SPEED FOR THE PARENT TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF MEMBERS GENERALLY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM, THE GFS WEAKENS IT SOMEWHAT, AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS, BUT THE OVERALL NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT
THAT POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS ON THE LOWER END. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLOWER,
STRONG SYSTEM, AND THUS A SLOWER, COOLER FRONTAL APPROACH. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO DEPICTS THAT CONSENSUS FAIRLY WELL, WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT (MEAGER THOUGH IT MAY BE),
OCCURRING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE COOL SNAP TRULY HITTING
MID-TO-LATE WEEK ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA, ADVECTING COOL, DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH TUESDAY, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
AND LOWER 60S. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
THE LOW 70S, AND LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW FL. PORTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COULD ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40F, BUT AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-END CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR
SUNRISE AT APF, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF AT ALL TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTS IN A FEW
HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SEABREEZE. WIND SHOULD RETURN TO
LIGHT, AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY, OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BOTH BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE PALM BEACHES WILL EXPERIENCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THIS WEEKEND AS SWELL INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 63 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 58 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 62 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 61 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 63 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 61 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 61 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 61 81 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 59 80 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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