918
FXUS62 KMFL 281713
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1213 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH EARLY IN THE
WEEK, USHERING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE NEW
YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CALM, SUNNY AND
DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
AND AMPLE DRY AIR ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HIT THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOWS OVERNIGHT COULD DROP
TO THE LOW-MID 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND INTO THE MID 50S
OVER THE INTERIOR.
A PATTERN CHANGE APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT
BEGINNING ITS DESCENT ALONG THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE, AND SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE THE LAST LITTLE BIT OF NICE, SEASONAL
WARMTH THIS YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR ZERO.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE BECOME DENSE IN
NATURE, WITH VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTH ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT KEEPS IT MOSTLY FOCUSED
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY (BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS) STARTING ON TUESDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHILE THE LOWS COULD POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER
30S-LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S EACH
NIGHT. THIS AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE ANOMALOUSLY DRY, WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO DROP TO THE 0.4-0.8 INCH RANGE (BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE). AS SUCH, EXPECT COOL, SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN 2026!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG AT
KAPF LATE TONIGHT AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT
OR BELOW 3 FT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH UP TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY,
WHILE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 243 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE PALM BEACHES WILL EXPERIENCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THIS WEEKEND AS SWELL INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 65 82 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 59 83 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 83 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 62 82 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 82 61 75 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 82 62 75 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 62 83 60 75 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 62 82 61 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 62 83 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 60 79 61 70 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...REDMAN
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