402
FXUS62 KMFL 291716
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1216 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
- QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, USHERING COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO START THE NEW YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AND CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT COULD BEGIN TO DIP IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL APPROACH,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. AREAS NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S, WHILE A NOTABLE
NORTH- TO-SOUTH GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP, AND LOWS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE
ON CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES AND ADVECTING A
MUCH COOLER, MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH IT. IN FACT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH (HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE COAST, AND LOWER STILL
INTO THE MID 60S IN AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE). MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
THEY'LL BE CONFINED TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE DAY.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE BECOME DENSE IN
NATURE, WITH VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND FL
AND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION,
MARKING THE START OF A NOTABLE COLD AIR SNAP THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR CWA. THIS TREND HAS
HELPED INCREASE OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF WELL-
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH PHILOSOPHY OF THIS
GUIDANCE, WITH THE LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 33-36F
ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE (ROUGHLY WITHIN THE 25TH-50TH
PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS).
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EVEN
COOLER APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING AREAS
IN GLADES AND HENDRY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AS
A RESULT IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL ALSO DIP, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S INTO THE UPPER 40S.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE COME WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
OVERNIGHT APPARENT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST, WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND PLEASANT, MAXING OUT
IN THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A (VERY) GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW MODERATES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WSW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BECOME
MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT. AS A FRONT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT, THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AFTER 07-08Z TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED AT AND WILL BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW
TOMORROW AROUND 10-12 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL APPROACH, RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH, UP TO 15-20 KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE,
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 238 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
THE PALM BEACHES WILL EXPERIENCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EARLY THIS WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL PREVAILS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 63 73 49 69 / 0 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 58 73 44 69 / 0 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 61 73 48 69 / 0 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 60 74 48 69 / 0 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 71 49 68 / 0 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 70 49 68 / 0 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 61 70 46 67 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 61 71 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
NAPLES 57 68 44 66 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GMZ656-676.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ657.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...REDMAN
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