109
FXUS62 KMFL 310501
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARRIVE FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE PALM BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT A COOLER AIR
MASS TO THE REGION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW AND LIKELY INTO LATE WEEK. TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
US WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING MAINTAINED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THUS KEEPING DRY AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AFTER 1AM, AND
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
PERHAPS A FROST ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GET. THIS DECISION WILL BE MADE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT, DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE COMFORTABLE AS THEY REACH THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER SE
FL EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US BUILDS IN. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY MANAGING TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO LOW/MID 70S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PENINSULA.
THE YEAR IS GOING TO END ON A COLD NOTE, WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING
TONIGHT INTO NEW YEARS EVE MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WEST OF THE LAKE
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S AND AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HREF PROBS, GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
COLLIER AND INLAND PALM BEACH ALL HAVE PROBS OF AT LEAST 70% FOR
REACHING APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 35 DEGREES. BASED ON THAT AND AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT STARTING AT 1 AM AND LASTING UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR GLADES
COUNTY HOWEVER THE LATEST HREF PROBS FELL TO 20-30% OVER WESTERN
GLADES, SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE LATER TODAY. OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO, LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S,
WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS.
WITH THE NW FLOW CONTINUING, NEW YEARS EVE WILL REMAIN CHILLY ACROSS
SOUTH FL. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE LAKE AND MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTH FL. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER SUNSET WITH
SOME PLACES ALONG EAST COAST METRO BARELY CLINGING TO THE LOW 50S
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALREADY BE INTO THE 40S
AS WE START 2026.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE MORNING OF POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW FL NEW YEARS DAY MORNING, BUT THEN WE SLOWLY
START A MODERATING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY MONDAY, BUT THIS FRONT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY FRONT.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL HAVE NOWHERE NEAR THE COLD AIR
PUSH THAT THE CURRENT FRONT POSSESSES. LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
HAZARDOUS NW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER A PASSING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD TO 5-
8 FT AND SEAS IN THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN CAUTIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
INCREASING SWELL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE PALM
BEACHES AND AN ELEVATED RISK FOR COLLIER AND BROWARD BEACHES. AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES WILL EXTEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES INTO SOUTH FL TODAY AND EXTENDS THROUGH MID
WEEK. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL FALL TO 20-30% OVER INLAND AREAS AND
SW FL. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 20-30% OVER ALL OF SOUTH FL ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 40 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 67 45 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 44 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 45 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 46 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 67 44 70 49 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 65 45 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 66 45 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 65 47 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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