093
FXUS62 KMFL 312323
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
- FROST LIKELY OVER MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.
- A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 154 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND PERSISTS. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, AS
THEY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
REACH THE MID 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET, AND THEY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH A CLEAR SKY, WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR AREAS OF FROST TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN THESE LOCATIONS.
WHILE NOT AS WIDESPREAD, PATCHY FROST IS EVEN POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MAINLY WEST OF HOMESTEAD IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN OTHER LOCATIONS WILL NOT
BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN ON
THE CHILLY SIDE AS THEY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.
LOWS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US IS ALLOWING A BRISK
NORTHERLY FLOW TO USHER IN COLD AND DRY AIR TO SOUTH FL TO END 2025.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR
GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND PALM BEACH AND INLAND COLLIER WHERE EARLY
MORNING APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVER
THE REST OF SOUTH FL, APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE LAKE AND MID/UPPER 60S
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FL.
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM IN GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, AND PERHAPS INLAND COLLIER AND PALM BEACH AS WELL.
CURRENT PLAN AFTER TALKING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS TO ISSUE
FROST PRODUCTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCTS EXPIRE THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND THE LAKE, TO MID AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO.
WE'LL START A SLOW MODERATING TREND ON NEW YEARS DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF, HOWEVER DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
THE MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, HOWEVER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT CONTAIN MUCH OF A COLD
AIR PUSH, BUT IT WILL REINFORCE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, BUT THEN MODERATE TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AFTER 16Z
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
HAZARDOUS NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL 12Z THIS
MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. CAUTIONARY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. SEAS THIS MORNING 4-
7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 3-6 FT IN THE GULF. BY THIS EVENING WAVES
SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2-4 FT IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PALM
BEACH TODAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
BEACHES. CONDITIONS OVERALL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY HOWEVER AN ELEVATED
RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AFTERNOON
MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 20-30% OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE UNDER CRITERIA, THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH THE LOW RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 46 69 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 40 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 44 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 43 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 44 68 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 45 68 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 44 69 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 44 68 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 44 69 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 45 70 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ063-066-067-
070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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