922
FXUS62 KMFL 011253
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 750 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
- A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
AS ADVERTISED, ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING AND START TO THE NEW YEAR ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A DRY NW WIND FLOW DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO OCEAN MODIFICATION. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEAR FLORIDA LATER TODAY, THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS, I SHAVED
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY'S HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS STILL
GIVES US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (PERHAPS APPROACHING 70F IN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN EVERGLADES).
ENHANCED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TODAY, BUT WITH THE SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIRMASS, THE DEWPOINTS WON'T BE AS LOW SO
THE AREAS OF CONCERN ARE MORE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
HAPPY NEW YEAR! WE START THE YEAR OFF COLD ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF ALLOWING A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, AS SHOWN BY OUR 00Z SOUNDING WHICH ONLY HAD A PWAT
VALUE OF 0.25 INCHES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET AGAIN. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, AND INLAND
PALM BEACH. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY UNTIL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HOWEVER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT BUT REMAINING CHILLY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 40 WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE, TO AROUND
50 CLOSER TO THE COASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S/60S.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS SOUTH FL
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT THE ONLY
CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY, ALBEIT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS, AND CERTAINLY NOTHING THAT WILL BRING ANY RELIEF
TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW WIND MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH A NE LANDBREEZE AT KAPF
AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY OVER THE AREA WATERS BECOME A LIGHT
TO GENTLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE ON FRIDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT IN THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND 1-2 FT IN THE GULF.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 67 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 66 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 67 48 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 66 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 66 49 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 66 51 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-067-
070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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