385
FXUS62 KMFL 092325
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS SW FLORIDA AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT BELOW ANY RECORD VALUES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHILE PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THIS AFTERNOON, SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS IS PORTRAYED WELL ON THE 18Z KMFL
SOUNDING WITH PWAT VALUES COMING IN AT 1.01 INCHES. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AS THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO 60
PERCENT) OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
THE BEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE LIGHTEST.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE AXIS OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS STOUT TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. NEVERTHELESS, ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS PLENTIFUL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FL, AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY-SOUTHEATERLY FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AS DEPICTED BY HREF AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ONCE AGAIN PRESENT
A THREAT OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE. THE RESULTING VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES WITH VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF
A MILE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS COMMUTING CONDITIONS.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE INTERIOR, AND MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN US, BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TO THAT EFFECT, KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40%
RANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPING ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP DISTURBANCES OVER THE GULF, ALL OF WHICH COULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY, AND GENERALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THE NBM DEPICTS
THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL WHILE ALSO ACCOUNTING FOR THE REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY, SO WE LEFT IT FAIRLY UNCHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA, HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD NOT IMPACT KAPF. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT AFTER 13Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MODERATE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY. CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 81 69 82 / 10 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 65 82 64 83 / 10 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 68 82 67 83 / 10 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 69 81 68 82 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 80 68 80 / 10 10 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 80 69 81 / 10 10 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 81 67 82 / 10 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 69 81 67 82 / 10 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 69 81 67 82 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 64 82 65 81 / 0 0 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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