673
FXUS62 KMFL 110553
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT BELOW ANY RECORD VALUES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY INTO TOMORROW, USHERING IN A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
ESTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THANKS TO THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO REACH 1-1.2 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
LATER AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN, THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. NBM HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO REPRESENT THIS DYNAMIC OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS UP TO 15-20% FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER ON SUNDAY ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY
NIGHTFALL ON SUNDAY, WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR RAIN (POPS 20-30%)
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND BALMY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
RECORD VALUES AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
LINGER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO START THE
NEW WEEK. ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S,
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. THE NBM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
FAIRLY WELL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE WED-FRI, AND LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 50S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND FOR A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER
00Z, WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST RANGING FROM
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS LATER ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 67 77 67 / 20 30 10 10
WEST KENDALL 83 63 77 62 / 20 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 83 65 77 65 / 20 30 10 20
HOMESTEAD 82 66 78 66 / 20 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 67 75 67 / 30 30 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 67 75 67 / 30 30 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 82 65 77 64 / 30 30 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 82 66 75 65 / 20 30 10 20
BOCA RATON 83 67 77 66 / 30 30 10 20
NAPLES 81 59 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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