966
FXUS62 KMFL 111135
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
635 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
- WINDS SURGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FEATURE
DRAPED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE; IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ON ITS APPROACH, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING INTO THE 40-50%
RANGE FOR THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 8PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH 24 HOUR
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH. WINDS WILL
SURGE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, AND A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND BALMY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
RECORD VALUES AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE FL STRAITS
SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR THE INTERIOR AND IN
THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND ITS PRESENCE WILL HELP KEEP ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN, AND NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S NEAR
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION
DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NBM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
FAIRLY WELL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE WED-FRI, AND LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
UPPER 40S-LOW 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
AFTER 19Z. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE NNE AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND COULD BE GUSTY AT
TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THAT COULD
LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE STARTING ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 67 76 67 / 20 30 10 10
WEST KENDALL 83 63 78 63 / 20 30 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 83 66 77 65 / 20 30 10 10
HOMESTEAD 82 66 78 66 / 20 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 66 75 67 / 20 30 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 66 75 67 / 20 30 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 83 65 76 65 / 20 30 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 83 66 75 66 / 20 30 10 10
BOCA RATON 83 66 76 67 / 30 30 10 10
NAPLES 80 59 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CWC
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