506
FXUS62 KMFL 120457
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1157 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST SHOWERS ALONG EAST COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
- WINDS SURGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
AND BEACH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT COULD DROP ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE
THIS WEEK, BRINGING REINFORCING COLD AIR AND MORE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARDS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SLOWLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM THAT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND EAST COAST METRO) LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTING NO MORE THAN THAN 0.3-0.5" OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE GULF COAST SINCE WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE EFFECTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. EITHER WAY, NO IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AND ANY AMOUNT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE AT LEAST A LITTLE OF THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS WELL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT LIKELY NOT GUSTING TO MORE THAN 15-20 MPH.
HEADING TOWARDS THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THERE WON'T BE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT
LOSES ITS STRENGTH. THUS, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH AGAIN ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR SW FLORIDA AND THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WITH ITS PRESENCE HELPING KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOVING FORWARD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE PATTERN STARTS TO
UNDERGO SOME MUCH BIGGER CHANGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SYNOPTIC-
SCALE TROUGHING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MERIDIONAL JET-STREAM FLOW OCCURS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH HAS POTENTIAL TO COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD FROM MAINE DOWN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS THIS TROUGH
AMPLIFIES, NEAR-SURFACE FLOW IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT (PWATS AROUND 1.5"). BY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE TROUGH WILL RUSH SOUTHWARDS
AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
AROUND 40% BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP TEMPS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THIS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL ARE NOT
EXPECTED SO THE PRIMARY ITEM TO MONITOR WILL BE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY MAY
NOT REACH 70 DUE TO THIS COLDER AIR.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH CALMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A MORE STABLE/ZONAL PATTERN AND THE ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR MASS SETTLE
IN. BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBILITY FOR THE
SUN-MON TIME FRAME, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT IT IS AT
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
MAINLY OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL,
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY. THIS HIGH RISK IS
LIKELY TO LAST INTO MID-WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 67 77 67 / 10 50 20 20
WEST KENDALL 84 63 78 62 / 20 40 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 84 66 77 65 / 10 50 20 20
HOMESTEAD 83 66 78 66 / 10 40 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 67 75 66 / 10 50 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 67 75 66 / 10 40 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 83 66 77 64 / 10 50 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 83 66 75 66 / 10 30 20 20
BOCA RATON 84 66 77 66 / 10 40 20 20
NAPLES 81 60 78 61 / 0 10 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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