008
FXUS62 KMFL 150919
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS SOFLO THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- LOW TEMPERATURES AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING REACHING LOWER 30S AROUND THE LAKE REGION, AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S AROUND THE METRO AREAS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S AROUND THE LAKE, WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL METRO AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-30KTS. THIS BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES BEGINNING THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. CAM/NBM MAX POPS REMAIN
IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.5", ALONG WITH HREF-QPF MAX AROUND 1",
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED. IN
TERMS OF CONVECTION, THE COMBINATION OF VERY POOR CAPE/MUCAPE
VALUES AND THE PREVAILING CLOUD COVER RESTRAINING DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE
COASTLINE.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BEHIND THE FROPA SHIFT NW WILL MARK THE ONSET OF ROBUST COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOFLO ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
DROP INTO FREEZING VALUES (30-31F) OVER GLADES AND PORTIONS OF
HENDRY COUNTIES. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS,
FOR WHICH RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS LIKE BRINGING
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS, SHELTER PETS, AND ENSURE WEARING WARM
CLOTHING IF GOING OUTSIDE.
ANOTHER COLD RELATED ISSUE WILL BE WIND CHILLS WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. LATEST ENSEMBLE/GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW APPT VALUES IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S FOR NORTHERN/INTERIOR AREAS OF SOFLO, AND UP TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE COASTAL METRO AREAS. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF SOFLO, EXCEPT THE
METRO AREAS CLOSEST TO THE COASTLINES. BUT EVEN RESIDENTS IN THOSE
AREAS SHOULD WEAR WARM CLOTHING IF GOING OUTSIDE EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH
COASTAL/WARMEST AREAS STILL LINGERING THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING UP A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING
AROUND THE LOW-MID 70S. PERSISTING SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP NEAR ZERO
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOFLO, WITH MAYBE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR BEING SOFLO, WITH COASTAL/WARMEST AREAS STILL
LINGERING THE UPPER 60S.
BY SUNDAY, LATEST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON TRACK SHOWING THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN PERIOD AS A ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHES THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY FROPA DURING THE LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND
40S, WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH PREVAILING N/NE
WINDS AND NEAR ZERO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING AFTER 09-10Z AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WITH SHOWERS WILL
REQUIRE TEMPOS AND AMMDS THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z AS THE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL VEER NW AND NNW BY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE
25-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW THEN NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE LAKE WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
25- 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MOST RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
BEACHES LATER TODAY. THE HIGH RISK IS LIKELY TO LAST INTO MID-
WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 44 69 59 / 70 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 76 39 69 53 / 6G THE AFTERNOON. 0 0 0 0 OPA-LOCKA 75
43 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 HOMESTEAD 76 43 69 58 / 60 0 0 0 FORT
LAUDERDALE 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 N FT LAUDERDALE 73 43 68 59 / 70
0 0 0 PEMBROKE PINES 74 42 69 57 / 70 0 0 0 WEST PALM BEACH 72 41
68 57 / 70 0 0 0 BOCA RATON 73 42 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 NAPLES 71 40
66 51 / 80 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ063-
066>075-172.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ063-066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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