027
FXUS62 KMFL 160830
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS, AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH NNE WINDS OF 20-25KTS.
- THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. MODERATE RISK
WILL THEN REMAIN AT ALL BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 70.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE COLD BLAST WILL KEEP LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS N/NE
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF AREA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE W ATL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES, WITH THE PARENT LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL SQUEEZE
THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL INTO THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS TO A MORE ENE
FLOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN SO, THE AIR MASS WON'T HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL
STRUGGLING TO HIT 70.
ROBUST SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH A BROAD
DOME OF STABLE AIR REMAINING OVER THE STATE. THUS, NEAR-ZERO POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERLY
SHIFT IN WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS
TONIGHT, ENOUGH TO PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND AND UP TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COASTS.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SFC WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR EVEN
CALM AT TIMES. BUT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S,
ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES OF SOME ISOLATED ATLANTIC COASTAL SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOW A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS, PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS FROPA, THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.
IN GENERAL, EXPECT SIMILAR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AS IN SATURDAY. LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA WITH PREVAILING
N/NE WINDS, BREEZY PERIODS AND NEAR ZERO CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS FINALLY BEGINS MODERATING ON
THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR PREVAILS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
BECOME NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF L/V FLOW
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE
GULF WATERS, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE FROM THIS
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVER THE COLLIER BEACHES WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING, THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ALL THE BEACHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AS UPDATED MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 59 76 64 / 0 0 20 20
WEST KENDALL 68 54 77 61 / 0 0 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 68 58 77 64 / 0 0 20 20
HOMESTEAD 69 59 77 63 / 0 0 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 60 75 62 / 0 0 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 59 75 63 / 0 0 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 57 76 63 / 0 0 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 68 58 75 61 / 0 0 20 20
BOCA RATON 68 59 76 61 / 0 0 20 30
NAPLES 66 52 74 60 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-
066>075-174.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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