438
FXUS62 KMFL 171802
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
- MILD TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SW FLORIDA ON MONDAY
MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A FEW DISCUSSION POINTS TO DISCUSS ON THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK. THE
ADVECTION OF HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING AND A THE
GRADUAL INLAND PROROGATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
ADDED IN 10-20% POPS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
SUNSET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SWITCHING GEARS TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH (70-90%) FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO
DIP BELOW 35F DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. IT REMAINS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PUT OUT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, HOWEVER IF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK,
THESE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES VALUES ON THE LATEST NBM RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES, LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS COLLIER COUNTY, AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE NBM 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING (32F) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, HOWEVER THE
HIGHEST POCKET OF PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32F REMAIN
IN THE 10-20% RANGE ACROSS GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY NEED OF A
FREEZE WATCH OR FREEZE WARNING ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXPANDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT SHIFTS OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND IT WILL
VEER TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AS PWATS RISE AND
RANGE BETWEEN AN INCH AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 1.4
INCHES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THIS COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST A BRIEF SHOWER TO THE
EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN VERY LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MODERATE AND THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF, ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD, AND THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE PRACTICALLY NON EXISTENT WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST
AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THESE AREAS EARLIER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FACTORED IN, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS STRONG AND LARGE SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ON MONDAY
WILL SLOWLY VEER AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY HEADING INTO
TUESDAY AND THEN EAST NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, THEY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION SUBSIDING AS
THE WINDS VEER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AS THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
AS THEY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, THEY WILL GET
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN HEADING TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PASS NEARBY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SIGNALS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND THEN RAPIDLY
SWEEPING THIS LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SUITE IS MORE BULLISH IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE GFS SUITE IS, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PASSING THE LOW OFF TO THE NORTH. THE
LATEST FORECAST INCREASES THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WATCHED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS SHIFTS IN INTENSITY AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST
MOVING FORWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND ARE TRENDING TOWARDS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
SHRA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. L/V
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW WITH WINDS VEERING TO A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
ON SUNDAY AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 81 52 69 / 10 30 10 0
WEST KENDALL 60 81 50 69 / 10 30 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 81 52 70 / 10 30 10 0
HOMESTEAD 64 81 53 71 / 10 40 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 80 51 69 / 10 30 10 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 80 51 69 / 10 30 10 0
PEMBROKE PINES 62 81 51 69 / 10 30 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 62 80 48 69 / 10 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 63 81 48 69 / 10 30 10 0
NAPLES 59 74 45 66 / 0 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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