699
FXUS62 KMFL 190705
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
- AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING
INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
TO THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN
BETWEEN BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARRIBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, IT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO VEER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS, WHILE UPPER 50S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND ON TUESDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START SHOWING GRADUAL SIGNS OF CHANGE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THEY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAST MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RETURN MAINLY
TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LOW TOPPED, HOWEVER,
SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO AROUND 80 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FORECAST BECOME MORE COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOME VERY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TRIES TO TAKE
PLACE ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
AND INTO THE GULF. IF ANY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WERE TO DEVELOP AT
ALL, IT WOULD BE VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. THIS PLAYS A ROLE IN
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA HEADING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN REGARDS TO SHOWER CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
BASICALLY IF SOMETHING WERE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, IT WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES HERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
IT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. IF IT WERE TO REMAIN VERY
DISORGANIZED, THIS WOULD LEAD TO LOWER AND MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THIS SECOND DISORGANIZED SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD LEAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY NEARBY CREATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
LATEST FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS AS IT TAKES A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS AND KEEPS THE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AT 30 TO
50 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION WHICH LEAD TO
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, HOWEVER, TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 16Z. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED SEAS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG ON TUESDAY
WHILE THEY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HEADING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS, HOWEVER, ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
ON WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHILE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING, THIS RISK WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO
MODERATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PLUMMET ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 30
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THESE VALUES WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 57 74 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 52 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 69 55 74 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 69 57 75 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 58 73 65 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 57 73 65 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 68 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 67 57 73 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 68 57 74 65 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 65 47 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-069-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
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