296
FXUS62 KMFL 201138
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
638 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALONG
THE EAST COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
A RATHER BROAD MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES A GOOD PORTION
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND THIS TROUGH WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARRIBEAN SEA.
AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY, THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS TO VEER AS WELL AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS GUST OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, AND THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY,
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE DIMINISHING AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTING FURTHER
OFFSHORE.
WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS VEER AND BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY,
GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL START TO TAKE PLACE.
THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED AND FAST MOVING ALONG THE BREEZE,
HOWEVER, A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON A
MODERATING TREND AS WINDS VEER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS
TODAY, MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CARRIBEAN SEA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OVER
THE REGION OR JUST NEARBY TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION AND LOCATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
HELP TO KEEP EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO TAKE PLACE AS WELL. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A
VERY WEAK STATE, IT WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS ON
THURSDAY. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND
80 ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WHILE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CARRIBEAN SEA WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, THE
REMNANTS OF THAT VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING WELL TO
THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY, MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STILL LOOK
TO BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS AT
10-15 KTS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FEET
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
DUE TO DEVELOPING STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 65 74 68 / 0 0 20 30
WEST KENDALL 74 60 76 65 / 0 0 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 74 63 76 67 / 0 0 20 30
HOMESTEAD 74 64 77 68 / 0 0 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 64 74 68 / 0 0 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 65 74 68 / 0 0 20 30
PEMBROKE PINES 73 63 76 67 / 0 0 20 30
WEST PALM BEACH 72 64 75 68 / 0 0 10 30
BOCA RATON 73 64 76 68 / 0 0 20 30
NAPLES 73 55 79 63 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page