211
FXUS62 KMFL 212348
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH POSITIVE
VORTICITY IMPULSES EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, ABOVE AVERAGE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
(PWATS RISING TO 1.3-1.6" FOR THE EAST COAST METRO) WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. DUE TO THESE VORTICITY
IMPULSES AND A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A SOURCE OF
LIFT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ANY STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT IN GENERAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
IN GENERAL, BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR TODAY AND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SLOWLY PROGRESS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN RISING PWATS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
1.1 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF
TODAY. AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
WELL AS THE EAST COAST ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED, HOWEVER,
SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON COULD
CONTAIN SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AS SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE TRIES
TO TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST, WHILE UPPER 70S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, A BROAD AND VERY DISORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND IT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO HAVE ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA, IT
WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
CLOSER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE ALLOWING FOR THE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH A GENERAL EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO
RISE AND EVENTUALLY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE FOUND. WHILE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT A LOW END CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND THEN EVENTUALLY WORKING OVER THE
EAST COAST HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THEY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL START TO SHOW SIGNS OF CHANGE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
CARRIBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OFF JUST TO THE
SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME LEFTOVER FROM THE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD SPARK OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,
HOWEVER, CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AND POTENTIALLY INTO UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGHOUT MOST OF SUNDAY,
HOWEVER, IT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN
THE DAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE ON
SUNDAY AND IT WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
PUT SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE FRONT PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS A BIT ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH
DETAILS IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL
AS THE EXACT IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND INTRODUCES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 15Z, THEN PERIODS OF
VCSH MIGHT RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE NE AROUND 10KT AT THE ATL TERMINALS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. APF MAY AGAIN EXPERIENCE A SHIFT TO THE NW
AFTER 17Z WITH GULF BREEZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A FRESH TO STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW CONTINUES. OVER THE GULF, FRESH TO STRONG EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 7
TO 10 FEET TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND
A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 79 69 80 / 30 40 10 20
WEST KENDALL 64 81 64 82 / 20 30 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 66 80 67 81 / 30 40 10 20
HOMESTEAD 68 80 68 81 / 30 30 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 78 68 79 / 40 40 10 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 78 69 80 / 30 40 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 66 80 67 82 / 30 40 10 30
WEST PALM BEACH 67 78 68 80 / 30 40 20 30
BOCA RATON 68 79 68 80 / 30 50 20 30
NAPLES 61 79 64 81 / 0 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
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