473
FXUS62 KMFL 222243
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FALLS ONSHORE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL EAST COAST
BEACHES TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENT ACARS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A MESOLOW JUST OFFSHORE NEAR KEY BISCAYNE THAT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. THANKFULLY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING
MOSTLY STAYED OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR TOUCHING KEY BISCAYNE. THE MOST
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES MOSTLY UNDER 1000 J/KG AND
AN ABUNDANTLY DRY LAYER ABOVE ~800-750MB. THIS PRESENTS A FAIRLY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, LINGERING WEAKENING COASTAL CONVERGENCE
EFFECTS, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE BROAD TROUGHING
PATTERN, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY FOR EAST COAST METRO LOCATIONS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. WITH THE DRY LAYER ABOVE 800MB HEIGHT LEVEL, ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OF THE WEAKER AND LOW TOPPED VARIETY. ANY
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OR FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT GOING FORWARD.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS AND ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF
AS NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEA BREEZE (CLOUD COVER DEPENDENT). ADDITIONALLY, HOW WARM IT GETS
DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF DAY WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
NEVERTHELESS, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (POPS OF 15-20%) AS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS PRESENT AND WILL INHIBIT STRONG CONVECTIVE
GROWTH. ANY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE OF THE WEAKER VARIETY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CONTAINING SOME
BRIEF MODERATE OR HEAVIER RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
AS ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS
THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN
SEA, LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MESO-LOW AND MESO-HIGH CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIR FLOWS
FROM THE COOLER OCEANIC WATERS ONSHORE. WITH JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY
BACKGROUND FLOW, THE INLAND PROROGATION OF THE GULF BREEZE WILL BE
MINIMAL AND WITH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL HEAT UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY, GRADUALLY
ADVECTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. 500MB FLOW WILL VEER FROM A ZONAL
DIRECTION TO SOUTHWESTERLY OUT AHEAD OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORT-WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE ON
SUNDAY AND IT WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST
DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDE SWATH OF UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW INLAND LOCALES TO REACH THE 90S GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.
THE LATEST 00Z EUROPEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC SUITES HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BOTH
DEPICT SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY VEERING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY HAVE TRENDED WARMER
IN THE LATEST FORECAST WITH A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. GIVEN THE QUICK SHIFT OF
SURFACE WINDS TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO PENINSULAR
DRAINAGE FLOW, THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. AFTER A STRING OF ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES TO BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND
THAT TIME FRAME, HOWEVER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES
HIGHLIGHT A 70-80% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT 6-
10 DAYS. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED AND IRONED OUT AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
LINGERING SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NE BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
SHIFT FURTHER E AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
ADDITIONALLY, VCSH AND ISOLATED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTER
17-18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE TODAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY
ONCE AGAIN MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE PALM BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 81 69 80 / 10 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 63 82 64 82 / 10 20 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 66 82 67 81 / 10 20 10 10
HOMESTEAD 67 81 68 81 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 79 69 79 / 20 30 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 67 80 69 80 / 20 30 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 66 82 67 81 / 10 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 67 80 67 80 / 20 20 10 20
BOCA RATON 67 81 68 80 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES 63 81 64 82 / 0 10 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...REDMAN
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