333
FXUS62 KMFL 231107
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
THIS MORNING & ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS
SITUATED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LATEST 300MB VECTOR
FIELD REVEALS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY ADVECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF, FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
TO STEEPEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. AT THE SURFACE, THE DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED ENVELOPE OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ACARS (AIRCRAFT DATA) & THE RECENT 00Z MFL RAOB CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITHIN THE BOTTOM 300MB OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH WINDS DECOUPLING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP/HRRR DEPICTING A
SURFACE INVERSION, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS INLAND LOCALES THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING. AS ALWAYS,
FORECASTING FOG IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE AND SMALL ALTERATIONS IN
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS CAN RESULT IN GREATER (OR LESS)
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A HIGHER
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW STRATUS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOWER
CEILINGS BEFORE THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION, THE
DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING BETWEEN THE LAND AND WATER INTERFACE
WILL RESULT IN BOTH AN ATLANTIC & GULF SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, VEERING WINDS ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, AND
MESOSCALE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER THE INSTABILITY LADEN GULFSTREAM WATERS. THE
00Z HRRR AND 00Z RAP BOTH DEPICT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SURFACE
BASED CAPE (1000-2000 J/KG) ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH MARGINAL 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.0 C/KM. WHILE THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPORADIC AND MOSTLY SHALLOW IN NATURE,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO JUST
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE UPWARD CLIMB TODAY
AS LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS INLAND RESULT IN
EFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST, THE NBM 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE DEPICT THE POTENTIAL OF
UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
COMPARISON, SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AT ALL FOUR OF OUR HISTORICAL
OBSERVING SITES (KMIA, KFLL, KPBI, AND KAPF) HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
BY TONIGHT AS THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCES OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEGIN TO ALTER OUR BACKGROUND WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND THE ATMOSPHERE
STRATIFIES OVER NIGHT, THERE IS ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCALES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ASSIST WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS ON
SATURDAY MORNING ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 30-50% (MEDIUM) RANGE AS OF THE
WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN OUR SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO AN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH THE RESIDUAL SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NOW DISSIPATED SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARDS
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE, BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR THE 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, SO INTERMITTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO TO FORECASTED TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA. A SIMILAR THEME TO FRIDAY CAN BE OBSERVED WHEN LOOKING AT
THE NBM'S 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE, THE POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXIST FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEARING 90
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
QUITE AN INTRIGUING SETUP TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA (AND US HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA) WILL BE
ON A PROVERBIAL ISLAND PER SE AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CONTINUED NOCTURNAL AND
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TO THE
NORTH A COMBINATION OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND C.A.D. (COLD AIR DAMMING) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CREATE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOOST FOR THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW PHASES
WITH THE LARGER POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL IN
TURN CREATE A VERY STRONG JET-STEAK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTH & NORTH CAROLINA TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS
IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
& MID ATLANTIC (AND ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES)
WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ENHANCE AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE, MID 80S ACROSS INLAND SUBURBS, AND A LARGE SPATIAL EXTENT
OF UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, A FEW INLAND LOCALES COULD REACH THE LOWER
90S AS FAR AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURE WITH WIDESPREAD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES. NWS HEAT RISK DEPICTS THE MINOR
CATEGORY (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY WHICH
MEANS THAT HEAT COULD AFFECT PRIMARILY THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO COOLING OR HYDRATION.
AS THE SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH, A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DEPICTED AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
AND THUS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY
HAS TRENDED LOWER, ALBEIT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE NOW SHOWS THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE DAY MORE IN TANDEM WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. A NARROW POOL OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND THE LATEST FORECAST NOW DEPICTS A 20-
40% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A DEVELOPING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS HAS BEEN A LONGER DURATION OF NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A COLDER FORECAST
NOW BEING DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S ARE NOW FORECAST JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
WITH THE DRY AND CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION VIA
NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH IS BELOW
AVERAGE COMPARED TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT A SLIGHT
VEERING OF WINDS TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY USHER IN SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THANKS TO
THE WARM WATERS AND MOISTURE OF THE NEARBY GULFSTREAM. ALOFT, MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL IN NATURE AS SEVERAL LOBES OF EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN
FIRM CONTROL DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AND JUST
BELOW OR AT SEASONAL NORMS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK (AND NOW TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD), THINGS GET RATHER INTERESTING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BASED OFF
OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST MODEL MEMBERS DEPICT A VERY DEEP
AND ROBUST TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST AND ANOMALOUS STRONG 850MB HIGH. THIS
PATTERN COMBINED WITH ANY RESIDUAL SNOW/ICE COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEK. DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AS WE REMAIN AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS A HIGH
CHANCE (70-90%) CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AND A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. AN IMPORTANT FORECAST NOTE OF WISDOM, YOU MAY SEE
SPECIFIC LONG-RUN DETERMINISTIC RUNS THAT ARE WIDELY SHARED ON
SOCIAL MEDIA OF EXACT TEMPERATURE VALUES. OUTSIDE OF 1 TO 2 DAYS
(AND EVEN THEN), FORECASTING EXACT TEMPERATURE VALUES TO A T IS
QUITE DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY A WEEK OUT. BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIFR CEILINGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AT APF WITH
LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG IN THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS OVER THE WATER WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS BEFORE VEERING TOWARDS THE SHORE DURING THE DAY. A
FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES
RESIDING ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS. A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 68 81 70 / 20 20 20 10
WEST KENDALL 82 65 82 66 / 20 20 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 82 68 82 69 / 20 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 81 68 81 70 / 20 20 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 68 80 70 / 20 20 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 69 80 70 / 20 20 30 10
PEMBROKE PINES 82 68 82 69 / 20 20 30 10
WEST PALM BEACH 80 68 80 69 / 20 20 20 10
BOCA RATON 81 68 80 70 / 20 20 30 10
NAPLES 81 63 82 65 / 10 0 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...CMF
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