754
FXUS62 KMFL 310509
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1209 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- THE ODDS OF IMPACTFUL AND DANGEROUS COLD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL NOT SEEN SINCE AT LEAST 2010. MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL
PUBLIC AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE
ACCORDINGLY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERLAND.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
OVERLAND. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT BETWEEN 2PM SATURDAY
TO 7AM SUNDAY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS PROPERLY!
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CLOUD
OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE, THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SHOULD
BE JUST NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BRINGING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THEREFORE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
MORNING, EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NAPLES. THERE
COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE METRO
AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST.
THE WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND WORK INTO THE METRO AREAS
OF NAPLES SATURDAY EVENING ON THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. WHILE THE
CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW, A FEW MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW FLURRIES WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE MAIN FOCUS HOWEVER SHOULD BE ON
THE POTENTIAL OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE AT LEAST 2010,
PERHAPS EVEN 1989 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MORE ON THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL DETAILS BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 970S MBS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO QUICKLY TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY
60S OVER THE REGION EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN QUICKLY FALL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BE AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST
COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH 30 TO 33 OVER REST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE
METRO/COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE
METRO/COASTAL AREAS OF BROWARD, COLLIER, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
IS FORECAST TO GET DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A 30 TO 50 PERCENT OF GETTING TO
FREEZING OVER THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND
10 TO 20 PERCENT OVER COLLIER COUNTY FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODELS TO SEE IF A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE METRO AREAS OF
MIAMI- DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES.
WITH THE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WIND CHILL READINGS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S OVER METRO/COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY. REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL SEE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S,
EXCEPT FOR THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY. THEREFORE, THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
GLADES/HENDRY/PALM BEACH COUNTIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES OF COLLIER/BROWARD/MIAMI-
DADE/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BUT KEEP THE FRIDGE COLD
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH EVEN
POSSIBLE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS LOWER TO MID
70S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE FRIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MOSTLY AROUND 30, EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE METRO AREAS TO
MID UPPER 20S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FREEZE WARNINGS AND WIND
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL MORE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND.
HOWEVER, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S BEFORE
INCREASING TO 60S ON TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S, EXCEPT AROUND FREEZING WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND AROUND 40 EAST COAST METRO AREAS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S, EXCEPT AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND 50S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN SOME MORE COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WNW WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WILL BE GOOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS. ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING, THE WINDS WILL VEER
BECOME NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AND INCREASE TO 30-40
KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD REACH
40-50 KTS. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK WITH THE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS OF 10-15 FEET ACROSS BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
BREAKERS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL MORE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY IN THE LATER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY AND GET TO
HIGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY. THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND GET
INTO HIGH THREAT ON SUNDAY FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES. IF THIS
FORECAST CONTINUES, THEN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS
WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50S. THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 MPH ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES IN LATER FORECAST, THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY.
REMEMBER THAT SOUTH FLORIDA IS ALSO IN A MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 35 53 36 / 40 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 33 54 31 / 40 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 67 34 53 34 / 40 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 35 54 35 / 40 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 34 52 35 / 40 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 66 34 52 33 / 40 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 66 34 54 35 / 40 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 30 51 32 / 40 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 66 33 52 36 / 40 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 37 52 35 / 60 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLZ063-066>068-168.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ063-066>068-070-071-073-168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLZ069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR FLZ069>075-172>174.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ610-630.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...CMF
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