405
FXUS62 KMFL 311951
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC AND
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD STAY UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, WITH THE ONLY
CHANGE BEING AN EXPANSION OF THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE METRO
BROWARD AND METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS
EXPANSION, THE AREAS TO FOCUS ON IN THESE ZONES WILL BE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT HAVE MORE AGRICULTURAL LAND (PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE TURNPIKE OUT TO KROME AVE.). IN THESE AREAS,
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF FALLING TO 30-32 DEGREE WITH THE HREF
HIGHLIGHTING ANYWHERE FROM 40-70% CHANCES. THEREFORE, AS A RESULT
OF THIS IT WAS DETERMINED TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING TO THESE
AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WORKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LAKE O. AS THIS
OCCURS, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REALLY INCREASE IN VELOCITY UNTIL THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A "BOMB CYCLONE" AS GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS A PRESSURE DROP OF 25-30MB IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. ONCE
THIS RAPID DEEPENING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE
RATHER QUICKLY TO 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THE SECOND HALF OF TOMORROW, BUT REMAIN BREEZY
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: SOUTH FL WILL SEE HISTORICALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND THAT HAVEN'T BEEN
EXPERIENCED IN MANY YEARS!
FIRST WE NEED TO GET THROUGH TODAY. WE'LL START THE DAY OFF
COMPARABLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST WILL
CROSS SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW OFF THE SE US COAST
DEEPENS, A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US. WEST TO
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FL FROM 2 PM TODAY THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY.
AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON, VERY COLD AND DRY
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. A BACK-TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIR MASS
EXPECTED CAN BE TRACED BACK TO HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE 540 THICKNESS LINE IS PROJECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW THE 850 MB TEMP FALLING TO
-5 TO -10 C BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO THIS WILL BE BY ALL
INDICATIONS AN EXTREME COLD EVENT FOR OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S AROUND THE LAKE
REGION, TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BY THE AIR
TEMPERATURES IS ONLY PART OF THE STORY. WITH THE BLUSTERY WINDS IN
PLACE, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING LEVELS RARELY
SEEN THIS FAR SOUTH IN FLORIDA. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AROUND THE LAKE, TO LOW/MID 20S OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA INCLUDING ACROSS THE METRO. SO WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS A HOST OF COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY: AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND FREEZE
WARNING FOR GLADES, HENDRY, AND PALM BEACH, WITH A HARD FREEZE
EXPECTED IN GLADES AND HENDRY. A FREEZE WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR INLAND COLLIER, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE. FINALLY, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND MONROE,
COASTAL/METRO BROWARD, AND COASTAL/METRO MIAMI-DADE.
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY, TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND
WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE HISTORIC COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MORNING OF
WIDESPREAD SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND SOUTH FL AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE METRO. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE EXPERIENCED
HOWEVER REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT AS STRONG, IT WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S EACH DAY. LOW TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVER INLAND SW FL, WITH
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. LOWS MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE
40S/50S, AND THEN DROP INTO THE 40S AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LAKE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WNW WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER
CIGS LIKELY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. CIGS WILL RISE LATER THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS IN THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS. SEAS BUILD TO 10-15 FT.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND RUNNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE GULF BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR 5-8 FT WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND OVER SW FL ON TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE LOWEST RH VALUES OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 34 52 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 31 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 34 54 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 36 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 34 52 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 34 52 35 59 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 33 54 34 60 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 31 51 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 32 53 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 37 54 36 60 / 20 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
172>174.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR FLZ063-066>068-168.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ063-066>068-070>074-168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ069.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR FLZ069>075-172>174.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ610-630.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...REDMAN
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