517
FXUS62 KMFL 011718
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1218 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC AND AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED SOUTH FL AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASSES SOUTH FL HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST 2010 IS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK-TRAJECTORY OF THIS
AIRMASS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING FOR MIA SHOWS A PWAT VALUE OF 0.5 INCHES, AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SHOULD DROP FURTHER TO AROUND 0.2 INCHES BY DAYBREAK.
THE 540 THICKNESS LINE IS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT MAY DROP SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY THE END OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOW
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AROUND THE LAKE AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE METRO AREAS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN
COLDER THOUGH THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS APPARENT TEMPS IN
THE TEENS AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND 20S OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FL.
AS FOR CURRENT HEADLINES, WE HAVE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR GLADES, HENDRY, AND PALM BEACH. FREEZE WARNINGS AND
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR METRO/INLAND BROWARD, METRO/INLAND MIAMI-
DADE, AND INLAND COLLIER. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL BROWARD,
COASTAL MIAMI-DADE, COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND MONROE, AND FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE. ALL OF THE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
AM THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH UNTIL 7 AM.
DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND AS THE COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BARELY REACH 50 NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY,
AND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS CONTINUING TO RELAX, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET QUICKLY TONIGHT AND MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN FALL
BELOW FREEZING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AROUND THE LAKE, TO LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS THE METRO. WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LAKE, FROST WILL
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. FROST MAY EVEN BE OBSERVED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
WHILE THE APPARENT TEMPS WON'T BE AS LOW TONIGHT, THEY WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FL. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AFTER THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE EXPIRED.
WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE "WARMER" THAN SUNDAY,
THEY WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WE'LL START A SLOW WARM UP ACROSS SOUTH FL. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND SOUTH FL WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, AND
THIS WILL REINFORCE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY
REAL RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, HOWEVER QPF
VALUES APPEAR TO BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SO THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
BESIDES TUESDAY MORNING AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE ONLY OTHER DAY THIS
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING,
AND THAT MAY JUST END UP BEING OVER INLAND SW FL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25
KTS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT, NW WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL SOUTH FL WATERS. NW WINDS
30-40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10-15 FT IN THE BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS TODAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN
THE GULF ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE ATLANTIC UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
INCREASING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. IN ADDITION, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF
5-8 FT IN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
PALM BEACHES ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH FL TODAY AND MONDAY AND OVER SW FL ON TUESDAY. THE MIN RH
VALUES TODAY WILL COINCIDE WITH DECREASING WIND VALUES SO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL
STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
PROLONGED DROUGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 36 59 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 30 60 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 35 60 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 35 61 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 35 59 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 35 59 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 34 60 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 33 59 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 34 59 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 36 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610-
630.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...REDMAN
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