921
FXUS62 KMFL 021117
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
617 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. MEMBERS OF THE
GENERAL PUBLIC AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO
PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES EARLY
THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. 00Z MFL
SOUNDING LAST NIGHT SHOWED A PWAT VALUE OF ONLY 0.17 INCHES AND
THOSE VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUR HISTORIC COLD
SNAP WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER MORNING WITH LOWS TODAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
SOUTH FL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI-DADE,
COASTAL COLLIER, FAR SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE, AND MAINLAND MONROE. WINDS
ARE MUCH LIGHTER THIS MORNING SO APPARENT TEMPS WON'T FEEL AS COLD,
HOWEVER THEY WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 20S THIS MORNING, SO A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FL. WITH THE MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS, FROST WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED IN MANY SHELTERED LOCATIONS, WITH HEAVY FROST POSSIBLE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WON'T BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, THEY ARE STILL ONLY PROJECTED TO BE +0 TO +2 C THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE "WARMER"
THAN YESTERDAY HOWEVER REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S, RH
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT EVEN WITH THE COOL
TEMPS.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO INLAND SW FL
WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MID TO UPPER
30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO,
AND LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NE. THIS WILL FURTHER MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, AND ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FEEL MUCH NICER, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ON A MODERATING TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WHICH ALLOWS A WARM S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION, ALBEIT NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS THIS LAST AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DAY IN THE EXTENDED
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH THE SW FL COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO MEET CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. NW WINDS
5-7 KTS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 20 KT AFTER 16-17Z. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH L/V FLOW
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH CAUTIONARY NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. 4-7 FT SEAS EARLY TODAY IN THE
GULF IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BE 6-
12 FT EARLY TODAY AND 5-10 FT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS 10-15 KTS IN THE GULF TODAY WITH 20-25 KTS IN THE ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
PERSISTENT SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
PALM BEACHES FOR 6-8 FT WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTH FL EARLY THIS WEEK. MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FL, AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR SW FL. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA, THE
LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
STILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 58 43 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 59 36 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 59 41 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 60 41 69 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 58 43 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 57 43 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 59 41 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 57 41 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 58 42 68 55 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 59 38 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-
066>075-168-172>174.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>068-
070>074-168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
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