233
FXUS62 KMFL 030609
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- AFTER COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, A SLOW MODERATING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BRINGS
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY,
ALONG WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NW FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS MORNING WILL BE THE LAST OF THE HISTORIC
STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER, WITH FREEZE WARNINGS OUT FOR GLADES,
HENDRY INLAND PALM BEACH, INLAND BROWARD, AND INLAND COLLIER. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTH FL EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES, AND THEN FROST ADVISORIES FOR INLAND AND FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ALL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
EXPIRE AT 9 AM THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE OF FL TODAY AND THIS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FURTHER MODERATE TEMPS TODAY AND PULL IN SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL SEE DEWPOINTS RAISE INTO THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, AND 30S/40S OVER SW FL.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO RETURN MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
WHERE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WHILE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL REMAIN OVER SW FL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL FEEL MUCH NICER RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS WE WON'T HAVE ANY COLD HEADLINES
OUT TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY OVER INLAND AND SW FL. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S W/SW OF THE LAKE, TO
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A WARM S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST US. SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A NUDGE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ON THURSDAY THIS WEEK
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SOUTH FL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND SW FL, WITH LOWER
CHANCES OVER SE FL. EVEN SO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER AT THIS
POINT, WITH LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT LITTLE TO
NO MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, COOLER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN FILTER INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS AIRMASS, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS AND SW FL. A SLOW MODERATING TREND
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AT APF. WINDS WILL BECOME NE
5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND NW AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING, AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. 1-2 FT
SEAS EXPECTED IN THE GULF TODAY. 4-8 FT SEAS EARLY TODAY IN THE
ATLANTIC SUBSIDE TO 3-6 FT THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES. IN ADDITION, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACHES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR 5-8
FT WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TODAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL, HOWEVER
AFTERNOON MIN RH LEVELS OVER SW FL WILL FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT TODAY.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, THE LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL STILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
RISK FOR SW FL TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 56 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 68 50 75 51 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 68 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 68 55 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 56 73 54 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 57 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 69 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 68 55 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 68 55 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 68 49 72 55 / 0 0 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-
066>075-174.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-067-
070-071.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ073-075-174.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ651-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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