647
FXUS62 KMFL 032312
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- A SLOW MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BRINGS WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES, ALONG
WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE GULF AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AS WELL.
WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT, THEY WILL NOT BE AS
COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS DUE TO VEERING
WINDS COMING OFF OF THE WARMER WATERS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REST
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ON THURSDAY THIS WEEK
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SOUTH FL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND SW FL, WITH LOWER
CHANCES OVER SE FL. EVEN SO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER AT THIS
POINT, WITH LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT LITTLE TO
NO MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, COOLER AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN FILTER INTO THE AREA. WHILE NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS AIRMASS, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS AND SW FL. A SLOW MODERATING TREND
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
DAY. AT EAST COAST SITES, A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY. A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 4
TO 7 FEET THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AND RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO
5 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS RISK WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY
SUBSIDES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TODAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL, HOWEVER
AFTERNOON MIN RH LEVELS OVER SW FL WILL FALL TO 25-35 PERCENT TODAY.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, THE LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL STILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
RISK FOR SW FL TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 56 74 57 73 / 0 10 0 20
WEST KENDALL 49 75 51 74 / 0 0 0 20
OPA-LOCKA 53 75 56 72 / 0 10 0 20
HOMESTEAD 54 74 55 74 / 0 0 0 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 56 73 56 71 / 0 10 0 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 56 74 56 71 / 0 10 0 30
PEMBROKE PINES 53 75 56 73 / 0 10 0 30
WEST PALM BEACH 55 73 54 70 / 0 20 0 30
BOCA RATON 55 74 55 71 / 0 20 0 30
NAPLES 49 72 56 67 / 0 0 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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