310
FXUS62 KMFL 050512
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1212 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TONIGHT PROGRESSES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING RATHER LIGHT ONLY 5-10 MPH.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH HIGH THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE NIGHT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BY THE STANDARDS OF
THIS PAST WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AROUND
THE LAKE, TO MID AND UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR AND SW FL.
ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
SE US WILL SLOWLY CROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS A DEEP
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH FL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AROUND THE LAKE REGION AND SW FL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE ONLY
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ONLY ABOUT
0.2-0.4 INCHES, SO CERTAINLY NOTHING THAT WILL PUT A DENT INTO THE
REGIONS ONGOING DROUGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY HIGHS UP THERE WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHERE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER SE FL WITH THE FRONT NOT FULLY CROSSING
THERE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL BUILD IN AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A DRY
BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD AIR WON'T STICK
AROUND LONG WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. SOME COLD
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SW FL, AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE MIDDLE 60S.
MODERATING TREND WILL BE SWIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY, AND THEN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A BIT
CHILLY, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND AROUND THE LAKE. LOWS EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S/50S. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
LIKELY TO RUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 17-23Z FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS AND
13-19Z FOR KAPF WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12-15 KTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTING 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CHANCES
EXIST FOR LOWER CIGS WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE GULF WATERS. SEAS 1-
2 FT IN THE GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE ATLANTIC.
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LAST IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR
THE PALM BEACHES, AND AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE BEACHES. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE COLLIER BEACHES
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 75 44 66 49 / 40 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 74 38 67 44 / 30 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 74 42 67 48 / 40 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 75 42 67 48 / 30 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 43 65 49 / 50 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 43 65 49 / 60 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 74 42 66 47 / 50 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 70 42 64 47 / 70 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 72 42 65 47 / 60 0 0 0
NAPLES 67 44 64 52 / 80 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...REDMAN
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