495
FXUS62 KMFL 051900
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND FOR THE COLLIER
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THE WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
HAS MOSTLY PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS AS ALREADY STARTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WIND SPEED OF 15 TO
20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH WILL ALSO BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY, AS VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STARTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE SET TO TAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
A ROBUST TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, WHICH WILL FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE AREA AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS
EASTWARD. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER
INCOMING COLD FRONT, BUT THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE LAST ONE. NEVERTHELESS, A STEEP ENOUGH DROP IN
TEMPERATURES IS STILL EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
FIRST WE WILL DISCUSS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVAL WITH ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
THE MAIN CONCERN HERE WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND THE COLDER
AIR IT BRINGS WITH IT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND OTHER INLAND LOCATIONS.
IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES
AS WELL AS THE UPPER 30S FOR ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. COASTAL AND
MOST METRO LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS TO NOT
FALL BELOW THE 40S. LOOKING AT THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES (A
REASONABLE HIGH-END FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES), THEY ARE
NO HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND LOW
TO MID 40S EVERYWHERE ELSE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE (REASONABLE LOWEST TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE) HIGHLIGHTS
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN GLADES/HENDRY WHILE PUSHING
THE REST OF THE REGION INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FURTHERMORE,
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE, THE CHANCES FOR AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES REACHING LESS THAN 40 DEGREES ARE ANYWHERE FROM
30-60% ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES
AND EAST COAST METRO. ADDING ANY LEVEL OF BREEZY WINDS INTO THIS
POST-FRONT WILL MAKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES
LESS OR EVEN LOWER.
THEREFORE, BY TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND WINDS LIKELY TO
REMAIN A LITTLE BREEZY STILL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE INLAND AREAS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO 35
DEGREES OR LESS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 3AM - 9AM FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THIS, NOT EXPECTING ANY
OTHER COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A FREEZE IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES. WE WILL EVALUATE THIS FURTHER IN THE NEAR TERM TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SEE SOME RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
CREATES A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOIST AIR TO RISE AND SATURATE. SOME
OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE OF THE HEAVIER VARIETY, BUT WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE 24-HOUR QPF ONLY BEING 1-2", NO RAINFALL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AND ANY RAIN WILL ASSIST WITH THE RECENT DROUGHT THAT HAS
BEEN ONGOING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY DUE TO CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BEING EXTREMELY LOW OR NON-
EXISTENT UNDER A RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
AS THE DEEP TROUGH ADVECTS AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST EARLY THIS
WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE GULF AND
EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG WITH A DRY AIR
MASS SETTLING BACK IN. WITH THE ABUNDANTLY DRY AIR RETURNING, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD. MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO ENHANCE
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE ONSET OF A TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AS HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE OCCURS AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE GULF WATERS SIMULTANEOUSLY OCCURS.
AS A RESULT, BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED EVEN AS A DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ADVECTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SHIFT MORE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO THE
UPPER 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S FOR SOME AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN A BIT CHILLY, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND AROUND THE
LAKE. LOWS EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND 50S FOR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 22-23Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 20-22Z
AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LAST
IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL RISE TO A STRONG BREEZE
TO NEAR GALE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO LESSEN ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
TO 7-10 FEET LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
DECREASE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING 6-8 FOOT SEAS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 207 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
LINGERING SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN ONGOING HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES, ALONG WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THE GULF COAST LEADING TO A HIGH
RIP RISK FOR THE COLLIER BEACHES AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 44 67 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 39 67 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 42 67 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 42 67 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 43 67 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 43 67 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 42 67 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 42 65 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 42 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 45 64 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ063-
066-067-070-071-073.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC
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