682
FXUS62 KMFL 061128
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
628 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. LINGERING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE COLLIER
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE
BEHAVIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT OFFSHORE AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE VICINITY THIS MORNING, BUT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
STILL REMAIN UNDER ITS INFLUENCE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
OCCUR WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TODAY. THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AS DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY NOT REACH 40 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY AND STILL NOT REACH 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY EVEN AS THE AIR
MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE. AS A RESULT OF THIS, LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES OF 35-
40 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE THE EAST
COAST METRO AND OTHER LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THIS MORNING, BUT REMAIN
BREEZY ENOUGH TO MAKE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES (APPARENT TEMPS) FEEL
LIKE THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN COASTAL
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.
DUE TO THESE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO BE FELT FOR SEVERAL HOURS,
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING UNTIL 9AM FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE ENTIRETY OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE FURTHEST WESTERN PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY WILL BE IN A SIMILAR BOAT WITH GLADES/HENDRY AS WIND
CHILLS FALL INTO THE LOW 30S IN THAT AREA. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE AROUND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ONCE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP LATE THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF
THE DAY, THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEX/MEX
REGION WILL START TO STRETCH AND SHIFT MORE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FALL AS DRASTICALLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WARMING
FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL CREATE A DRY AND TRANQUIL PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES NEEDED. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHILE THE EAST COAST ONLY FALLS INTO
THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SETTLES COMPLETELY
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE
SHIFT WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG, SO TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVOID BECOMING LOW ENOUGH TO NEED COLD
WEATHER HAZARDS BEING ISSUED.
OTHER THAN THAT, THE RIDGE PATTERN AND DRY AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND CREATE A
LENGTHY PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REBOUND EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN, EVENTUALLY RISING BACK TO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY, ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND AREAS AND AROUND THE LAKE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST OUT OF A SIMILAR
DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF FOR THE GULF
WATERS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE FROM THEIR PEAK SPEEDS IN THE ATLANTIC AS TODAY GOES ON,
BUT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THE ATLANTIC. AFTER THIS MORNING, SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FEET
IN THE GULF BUT REMAIN 6-8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP A HIGH
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE FOR THE COLLIER BEACHES THROUGH
TODAY. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES, EVEN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THE RIP RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
A DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TRANSPORT AND 20FT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DRY
VEGETATION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A REINFORCING PUSH
OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TOMORROW, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
FALL SLIGHTLY FURTHER, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND DRYING FUELS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 66 52 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 67 46 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 67 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 67 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 67 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 65 51 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 65 50 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 54 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070-071-073.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page