782
FXUS62 KMFL 212318
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
618 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY SPREADING CLOSER TO EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COASTS, WHILE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL BECOME DENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST.
ON SUNDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS A
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FURTHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY RACE OFF WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK OFF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOCATIONS
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
AS THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AND
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW TO SET UP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL AS INTO FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AREA WIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINSH AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES AS THE CENTER OF THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS, LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. WHEN THE WIND IS
FACTORED IN, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHILE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ON MONDAY AS THEY
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD OF THE WEEK AS LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE THE LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE IN PLACE WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES
IN LOWER TO MID 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND
THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
WHILE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE ONE MORE CHILLY START, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WIND FLOW TO VEER AND GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK, THE VEERING WIND FLOW WILL START A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COASTS, WHILE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR PREVAILS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR OR LOWER
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS FG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS AND SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
COASTS. FOR NOW, HINTS HAVE BEEN GIVEN AT THIS FOR KAPF, KTMB, AND
KMIA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
OUT OF THE WSW BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW AFTER 22-23Z AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 19-00Z,
VCSH AND WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE FORECASTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY WHILE SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS. DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE
PALM BEACHES WHILE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SETTING UP ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS, THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 86 48 64 / 0 20 10 0
WEST KENDALL 59 87 45 66 / 0 20 10 0
OPA-LOCKA 64 87 48 65 / 0 30 10 0
HOMESTEAD 64 86 47 66 / 0 20 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 86 47 63 / 0 40 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 86 47 62 / 0 40 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 64 87 47 65 / 0 30 10 0
WEST PALM BEACH 62 86 45 61 / 0 60 10 0
BOCA RATON 62 87 45 62 / 0 50 20 0
NAPLES 63 77 46 61 / 0 50 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ068-069-071>075-168-172>174.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page