397
FXUS62 KMFL 221745
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL
AS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME OF THIS FOG
COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD CLOSER TO EAST COAST METRO AREAS
BEFORE LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO QUITE A CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS TODAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TODAY
PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL OF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY. THIS WILL BRING A BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS
WELL. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
VERY DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WHILE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION OF
THE REGION. LOWS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FACTORED
INTO THE EQUATION, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE EVEN COLDER TONIGHT AS
THEY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WITH STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THEY WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND, COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MORE INFORMATION ON THAT WILL BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO QUITE A CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH COMPLEX DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS TODAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TODAY
PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY LOCATED WELL OF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL TIGHTEN RAPIDLY. THIS WILL BRING A BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS
WELL. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND AN ABUNDANCE OF
VERY DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WHILE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION OF
THE REGION. LOWS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FACTORED
INTO THE EQUATION, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE EVEN COLDER TONIGHT AS
THEY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WHILE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WITH STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THEY WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND, COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MORE INFORMATION ON THAT WILL BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND CENTER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
CENTERING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE
LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TRENDING COLDER
AND THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 TO 60 PERCENT) OF
TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST
OTHER AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. SINCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY, THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINSH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, HOWEVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE ONCE AGAIN AS THEY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE ONE MORE NIGHT OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE MORESO DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO DROP
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHILE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE, THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REST
OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WHILE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTS, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS THEY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST, WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DRAPING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AS WELL AS NORTHERN FLORIDA. WHILE THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AT THE VERY LEAST,
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS COULD REINTRODUCE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AREA WIDE HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
COULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR LOWER CIGS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH AMENDMENTS MADE IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE WSW THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT NW TONIGHT
AFTER 23-00Z AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT 20-30
KTS THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, AND THEN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY STARTING TO SUBSIDE LATER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BUILD
TONIGHT RANGING BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
BEACHES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND SEAS BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA HEADING
INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ALSO ANTICIPATED, THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS
INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND IF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON
TUESDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN
CRITICALLY LOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 48 63 41 65 / 20 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 44 65 36 67 / 20 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 46 64 41 67 / 20 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 46 65 40 67 / 20 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 46 62 41 65 / 20 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 46 62 41 65 / 20 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 46 65 41 67 / 20 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 44 61 39 64 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 45 62 39 65 / 20 0 0 0
NAPLES 46 61 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ068-069-071>075-168-172>174.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ063-
066-070.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ063-066.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...REDMAN
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