598
FXUS62 KMFL 230650
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG AND ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS
TODAY PROGRESSES. AS THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THEY WILL ONLY RISE TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, AND INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND
CENTERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AND THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, WHERE LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE EVEN COLDER AS THEY
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WIND CHILL
VALUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE MID 30S.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CENTERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX, AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, AS WINDS VEER
AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHILE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY ONCE
AGAIN, IT WILL FEATURE MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF GLADES COUNTY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTS, HOWEVER, THEY WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE GULF HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO RISE
IN THE FORECAST AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT IN HOW IT HANDLES THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE INTENSITY AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK
TO RISE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE GULF AND A
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TODAY, THEN 7 TO 10
FEET HEADING INTO TONIGHT WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FEET TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND RANGING
FROM 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL SLOWLY SUBSIDES.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST, AND A LARGE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET AND RANGE
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WIND SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 20
TO 30 MPH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BECAUSE OF THIS, A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS THEY WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT. THESE VALUES COULD
STILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 63 42 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 65 36 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 64 41 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 65 39 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 41 65 51 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 41 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 65 41 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 60 39 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 62 40 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 61 39 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ068-069-071>075-168-172>174.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
070.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ063-
066>071-073-168.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ063-066-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
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