798
FXUS62 KMFL 260509
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1209 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO DENSE SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW FLORIDA NEAR THE NATIONAL FIRE,
RESULTING IN THE RECENT CLOSURE OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY FROM
SR-29 TO US-27. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO ADHERE TO GUIDANCE
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BEGINNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
RTMA ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE AXIS OF ELONGATED
SURFACE RIDGING NOW DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA & SURROUNDING
WATERS, WITH THE BULK OF RELIABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING
CALM WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING AS A NOCTURNAL NEAR-
SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD, IT
IS ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
IN FULL SWING. TEMPERATURES BEFORE AND AT DAYBREAK ARE FORECAST TO
BE FAVORABLE (MID 30S, EVEN LOW 30S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS) FOR FROST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND
COLLIER THROUGH 8AM THIS MORNING. THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVELY BURNING NATIONAL FIRE (AND SEVERAL
SMALLER HOT SPOTS) ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. WHILE COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS HELP STIFLE MAJOR FIRE
EXPANSION OVERNIGHT, THE SETTLING OF DENSE SMOKE CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON ROADS IN THE VICINITY
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING AS REPORTS HAVE COME IN OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 70 AND 80.
TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS INLAND SW FLORIDA, LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STOUT SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
VEERING OUT OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE LAND AND OCEAN
INTERFACE WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT ALONG BOTH COASTS
AND CONTINUE THE GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT MAY ALSO LOFT SMOKE FROM THE
NATIONAL WILDFIRE DIRECTLY ONTO INTERSTATE 75 (ALLIGATOR ALLEY)
BEFORE THE PLUME RISES HIGHER IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY CONCERNS MAY REMAIN WITH US FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL USHER
IN THE BEGINNING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE CHILL AT DAYBREAK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
ALL HISTORICAL CLIMATE SITES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW INLAND
LOCALES POTENTIALLY REACHING 80. THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WAKE UP TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST, MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO, AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION, SURFACE RIDGING HANGING ON, AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO THE 80S (ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS AS
REMARKABLE OF A TEMPERATURE SWING AS ONE CAN GET HERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA, SPOKEN AS A TRUE SOUTH FLORIDA NATIVE. UPPER 80S THIS PAST
WEEKEND, 30S AND 40S TO START THE WORK WEEK, AND A RETURN TO THE 80S
TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK OFF. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE DAYTIME, VERTICALLY CAPPED AS
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
A MOISTURE RESURGENCE IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE ORIENTATION OF SURFACE WIND FLOW AND AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL USHER IN A HIGHER LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER
ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MENTIONABLE POTENTIAL OF 90S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY
DEPICTING A 20-40% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER AND EAST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SELECT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT A PLETHORA OF RESIDUAL DRY
AIR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE EVOLUTION OF HOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN RATHER INTERESTING AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE (ECENS, GEFS, AI
ECENS, AI GEFS) NOW SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING IN STRENGTH BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE PROGRESSION AND
TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS THE FORECAST STANDS THIS MORNING, SATURDAY FEATURES
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SITTING IN THE BALLPARK OF 40-60% ACROSS
THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6
INCH RANGE.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES FRONTOLYTIC IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ENVELOPE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
(RELATIVE TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY) WILL REMAIN DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AND LOW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE
NATIONAL FIRE. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATER TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DECREASE FROM 4-6 FEET THIS MORNING IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2-3
FEET IN THE GULF TO 3-5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC AND 1-2 FEET IN THE
GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ELEVATED SEAS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
CONTINUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE DRY AIR AND ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL MODERATE COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS, MINIMUM VALUES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS (BELOW
35%) ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. WINDS WILL VEER TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ENHANCE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
VEERING ONSHORE (SERLY EAST COAST, SWRLY GULF COAST) DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE NATIONAL WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN IN BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
PRESERVE THIS MORNING. THE SIZE OF THE WILDFIRE MAY RESULT IN
MESOSCALE CHANGES TO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WILDFIRE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYBREAK HOURS, DENSE SMOKE MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE. DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ENHANCED WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE FIRE DUE TO AIR CIRCULATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 68 83 68 / 0 20 20 20
WEST KENDALL 81 63 85 64 / 10 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 81 66 84 67 / 0 20 20 20
HOMESTEAD 79 67 84 67 / 10 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 68 82 68 / 10 20 20 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 79 68 83 68 / 10 20 20 30
PEMBROKE PINES 81 67 85 67 / 10 20 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 80 66 84 67 / 10 20 30 40
BOCA RATON 79 66 82 67 / 10 20 30 30
NAPLES 79 63 81 64 / 0 10 10 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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