895
FXUS62 KMFL 261137
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO DENSE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SW FLORIDA NEAR THE NATIONAL
FIRE, RESULTING IN THE CLOSURE OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY FROM SR-29
TO US-27. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO ADHERE TO GUIDANCE FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BEGINNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN:
THE DECOUPLING OF WINDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS RESULTED IN
THE POOLING OF DENSE SMOKE FROM THE ACTIVELY BURNING NATIONAL FIRE
ALONG ALLIGATOR ALLEY AS THE TOP OF THE INVERSION LAYER REMAINS
ROUGHLY 300-400 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. FHP (FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL)
HAS CLOSED ALLIGATOR ALLEY (INTERSTATE 75) FROM SR-29 (EXIT 80) TO
US-27 (EXIT 23) ACCORDINGLY DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES. MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THE NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LAND BREEZE WHICH
WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS AT THE FIRE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND THE
POTENTIAL OF SMOKE AND REDUCED AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
MAY ONCE AGAIN ADVECT SMOKE FROM THE NATIONAL FIRE DIRECTLY OVER
ALLIGATOR ALLEY (I-75) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY IS THAT CONTINUED PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND AIR
QUALITY REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
NATIONAL FIRE CONTINUES TO BURN. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO ADHERE TO
GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS, THE COMBINATION OF DENSE SMOKE AND
NIGHT-TIME CAN PROVE TO BE DANGEROUS FOR DRIVERS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS:
THE AXIS OF STOUT SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY,
RESULTING IN MESOSCALE PHENOMENA DICTATING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. NOCTURNAL STRATIFICATION AND A NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AT DAYBREAK AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO. A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD ONCE AGAIN TREND CLOSER TO THE
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BETWEEN THE LAND AND OCEAN INTERFACE WILL RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY (EAST COAST) AND
SOUTHWESTERLY (GULF COAST) DIRECTION ALONG BOTH COASTS BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR AREA. ALOFT, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION, SURFACE RIDGING HANGING ON,
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO THE 80S (ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHALLOW CAPPED
SHOWERS (15-20% CHANCE) ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLENDED VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS THAT
DEPICTED HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE STANDARD NBM.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF A PLUME OF DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEPER ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL OF 90S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD
STEADY DEPICTING A 20-40% ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
AND EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL (1000-2000 J/KG) AND LAPSE RATES
LACKLUSTER, RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL SUPPORT
FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS BEING POSSIBLE IF ANY TALLER CORES ARE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE.
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE BACKGROUND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY COULD HELP
LOCALIZED ASCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS, THE OTHER CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE ANY POTENTIAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES SPARKING
ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THE EVOLUTION OF HOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS
BEEN RATHER INTERESTING AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE (ECENS, GEFS, AI
ECENS, AI GEFS) NOW SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING IN STRENGTH BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE PROGRESSION AND
TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS THE FORECAST STANDS THIS MORNING, SATURDAY CONTINUES
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SITTING IN THE BALLPARK OF 30-
50% ACROSS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES FRONTOLYTIC
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ENVELOPE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE (RELATIVE TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY) WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, A QUIET PERIOD IS USHERED IN ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP SHOP ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A RESULTANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OCCURS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG
THE EAST COAST TO MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST, MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON (GREATEST FOCI ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID-MORNING
RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. CALM WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT PALM BEACH &
BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND LOCALES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ENHANCE
SLIGHTLY BY LATE THIS MORNING, VEERING ONSHORE (SERLY EAST COAST,
SWRLY GULF COAST) ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
NATIONAL WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN IN BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE
THIS MORNING. THE SIZE OF THE WILDFIRE MAY RESULT IN MESOSCALE
CHANGES TO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WILDFIRE.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND DAYBREAK HOURS, DENSE SMOKE MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE, ESPECIALLY ALONG ALLIGATOR
ALLEY. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ENHANCED WINDS
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE FIRE DUE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE AIR CIRCULATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 67 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 80 63 85 63 / 20 20 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 80 66 85 67 / 20 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 79 66 83 67 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 67 81 68 / 20 20 30 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 67 82 68 / 20 20 40 30
PEMBROKE PINES 81 66 85 67 / 20 20 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 79 66 83 66 / 20 20 40 40
BOCA RATON 79 66 83 66 / 20 20 40 30
NAPLES 79 63 81 64 / 10 10 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...ATV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page