610
FXUS62 KMFL 270535
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- A FOG/SMOKE MIX MAY CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF I-75, TAMIAMI TRAIL, AND SR-29
THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO BOTH COASTS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UPWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AS WE AWAIT THE FRONT TO
REACH SOUTH FLORIDA, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AND THE ENCROACHING TROPICAL AIRMASS
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS WINDS CALM. WHILE DENSE FOG WOULD
TYPICALLY BE A CONCERN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, IT'S MADE WORSE IN A
FEW SPOTS BY THE ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THE BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
PRESERVE. IN THESE AREAS, WHERE FOG AND SMOKE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO MIX, NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAKING DRIVING
THROUGH THESE AREAS QUITE DANGEROUS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN
WOULD BE ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND TAMIAMI TRAIL NEAR SR-29. FOG WILL
LIFT INTO LOW CLOUDINESS TOMORROW MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING.
AS THE MID/UPPER DRY AIR GETS SQUEEZED OUT TO THE NE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASSES, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WHERE THE ATLANTIC AND
LAKE BREEZES MEET ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE, WEAKLY FORCED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A VERY ISOLATED
NATURE ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THE EVOLUTION OF HOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDLING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS
BEEN RATHER INTERESTING AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE (ECENS, GEFS, AI
ECENS, AI GEFS) NOW SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING IN STRENGTH BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE PROGRESSION AND
TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS THE FORECAST STANDS THIS MORNING, SATURDAY CONTINUES
TO FEATURE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SITTING IN THE BALLPARK OF 30-
50% ACROSS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE
1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES FRONTOLYTIC
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ENVELOPE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE (RELATIVE TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY) WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, A QUIET PERIOD IS USHERED IN ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP SHOP ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A RESULTANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OCCURS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG
THE EAST COAST TO MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST, MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON (GREATEST FOCI ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. SUB MVFR/LIFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KAPF THROUGH 13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SE TO
SSE AROUND 10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS, EXCEPT FOR A WESTERLY SHIFT AT
APF WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. ADDED IN VCSH AT NORTHERN EAST
COAST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS EACH DAY AND NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LIKELY SPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT PALM BEACH &
BROWARD COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK RETURNS NEXT WEEK
ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION TOMORROW. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL, WITH A SLIGHTLY ONSHORE COMPONENT CLOSER TO THE
COASTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH, BUT INFREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. VERY GOOD
DISPERSION INDICES TODAY WILL FALL INTO THE GENERALLY GOOD RANGE
TOMORROW. FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (PRIMARILY
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST URBAN CORRIDOR), AND COULD BE MORE DENSE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WHERE THE FOG MIXES WITH SMOKE FROM ONGOING
WILDFIRES, DANGEROUS REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
AND TRAVELERS SHOULD AVOID THESE AREAS.
THIS WEEKEND, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HOWEVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH IN MOST
LOCATIONS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ONGOING DROUGHT OR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON,
WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 0.5-0.75". THE PRIMARY
WINDOW FOR THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AND KEEP A LOW
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, OR
EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 69 83 67 / 20 20 40 30
WEST KENDALL 84 64 85 62 / 20 10 40 20
OPA-LOCKA 84 67 84 66 / 20 20 50 30
HOMESTEAD 82 67 83 65 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 68 81 66 / 20 30 50 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 68 82 66 / 20 30 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 84 67 84 66 / 20 20 50 40
WEST PALM BEACH 82 67 83 65 / 30 40 70 50
BOCA RATON 81 67 82 65 / 30 30 60 50
NAPLES 81 64 78 63 / 20 40 40 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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